山东省设施农业风灾风险评估研究

Wind disaster risk assessment for facility agriculture in Shandong Province

  • 摘要: 本研究利用气象观测、高分辨率卫星影像、灾情直报等数据, 基于自然灾害风险理论, 探索了设施农业风灾风险评估方法。以山东省为例, 从设施农业风灾危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个方面, 构建设施农业风灾风险评估指数, 开展风险评估研究, 并对评估结果进行了分析和验证。结果显示, 风灾危险性受地形影响, 高值区主要分布在鲁中山区和山东半岛; 暴露度高值区分布符合设施种植建设用地规范, 主要集中在鲁中的东部、鲁西北和鲁西南; 脆弱性与基本风压反向分布较为吻合, 中高值区主要分布在鲁南和鲁中的东部地区; 防灾减灾能力较弱地区主要分布在成灾指数大、风灾预警能力相对较弱、经济欠发达的鲁西北、鲁西南和鲁中的西部; 设施农业风灾风险高低由危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力共同决定, 高风险区主要分布在鲁西北、鲁西南以及鲁中。经检验, 设施农业风灾风险分布与风灾灾情发生情况空间上具有显著一致性, 基于自然灾害风险理论构建的设施农业风灾害风险评估指数合理、方法可行, 结果可为设施农业风灾风险管理以及防灾减损提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Wind disasters are meteorological disasters that have a significant impact on China’s facility agricultural production, and it is of great theoretical and practical significance to conduct research on wind disaster risk assessment for effective disaster prevention and mitigation in facility agriculture. This study explored a wind risk assessment method for facility agriculture based on natural disaster risk theory and its application in Shandong Province. Using extreme wind speed observation data of Shandong Province from 1991 to 2020, the fuzzy information distribution theory was used to calculate the probability of wind disaster occurrence at each level, and the hazard index of wind disasters was constructed by combining it with wind intensity. Based on GF-6 satellite image for 2020, an exposure index was constructed by extracting the areas of agricultural facilities in each district and county. Based on the wind resistance design standards of agricultural facilities, a vulnerability index was constructed using the maximum wind speed data. Based on wind damage information and wind speed observation data from 2010 to 2020, a hazard index of wind disaster was constructed to assess disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. These four risk assessment elements were integrated to construct a wind-damage risk-assessment index for facility agriculture. The analysis results showed that wind hazard was influenced by topography and geomorphology, with the highest hazard in the central mountainous area and Shandong Peninsula. The distribution of high exposure areas was in line with the norms for land used for facility cultivation, and was mainly concentrated in the eastern part of central, northwestern, and southwestern Shandong. The distribution of vulnerability was essentially opposite to basic wind pressure, and medium-high value areas were mainly distributed in southern Shandong and the eastern parts of central Shandong, where plastic greenhouses and medium-sized arched plastic greenhouse were more concentrated. Areas with weaker capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation were mainly distributed in northwestern Shandong, southwestern Shandong, and western part of central Shandong, where disaster index was higher, the wind disaster warning capacity was weaker and the economy was less developed. The risk of wind disasters in facility agriculture was determined by integrating four factors: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation. The high-risk areas for wind disasters in facility agriculture were mainly in northwestern Shandong, where exposure was high; southwestern Shandong, where the vulnerability was high and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation was weak; and central Shandong, where exposure and hazard were high and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation was weak. The results of the wind disaster risk assessment in Shandong Province showed that the wind disaster risk index and the occurrence of wind disasters in each district and county were significantly consistent in space. The wind disaster risk assessment index for agricultural facilities constructed based on the natural disaster risk theory was reasonable and feasible, providing a reference for the scientific management of wind disaster risk and effective disaster prevention and mitigation in facility agriculture.

     

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