Abstract:
In recent years, the rapid expansion of “non-grain” cultivated land in China has become a significant factor affecting food security. From the perspective of national food security, elucidating the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving factors of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province, is of great importance for preventing and controlling of “non-grain” cultivated land, and optimizing cultivated land use. This study employs a combination of spatial autocorrelation, migration of gravity center, and standard deviation ellipse model and geodetector to comprehensively analyze the spatial-temporal changes of the “non-grain” cultivated land and its driving factors in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that: 1) The average values of “non-grain” rates of cultivated land in Hebei Province in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 0.23, 0.24, 0.27, 0.26, and 0.20, respectively, demonstrating an overall trend of initial increase followed by a decrease. 2) The “non-grain” rates of cultivated land exhibited a spatial pattern of higher levels in the southeastern (Xingtai and Hengshui), northeastern (Tangshan and Qinhuangdao), and northwestern (Chengde and Zhangjiakou) regions of the Hebei Province, whereas it remained comparatively lower in other areas. The global Moran’s
I index showed an initial increase, followed by a decrease, then a resurgence. 3) Over the past two decades, the clustering of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province has primarily been characterized by low-low and high-high clusters. The standard deviation ellipse and the gravity center of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province remained relatively stable from 2000 to 2015, with a significant northward shift since 2015. 4) The “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province is a complex phenomenon driven by multiple factors. The natural endowment and production condition of cultivated land played a dominant role in the spatial differentiation of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province, while the impact of economic level on “non-grain” cultivated land progressively intensified. In the northwestern mountainous area, elevation has the greatest impact on “non-grain” cultivation land, while in the southeastern plain area, economic factors such as GDP per capita and the urban-rural income gap had a greater impact. The results will further consolidate the achievements in the management of “non-grain” cultivated land in the province by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors. Subsequently, a reference framework will be developed to help government to formulate precise prevention and control measures for the “non-grain” cultivated land.