河北省耕地“非粮化”时空分布特征及驱动因素研究

Analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics and driving factors of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province

  • 摘要: 近年来, 我国耕地“非粮化”现象日益突出, 已成为影响粮食安全的重要因素。基于国家粮食安全视角, 理清河北省耕地“非粮化”空间分异特征及其驱动因素, 对河北省防治耕地“非粮化”和优化耕地利用具有重要意义。本研究采用空间自相关、重心迁移及标准差椭圆模型和地理探测器相结合的方式, 综合分析2000—2020年河北省耕地“非粮化”的时空变化特征及其驱动因素。研究结果表明: 1) 2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年河北省耕地“非粮化”率平均值分别为0.23、0.24、0.27、0.26和0.20, 耕地“非粮化”水平整体呈先上升后下降的趋势。2) “非粮化”率在空间上表现为河北省东南部(邢台和衡水)、东北部(唐山和秦皇岛)及西北部(承德和张家口)等地较高, 全局Moran’s I指数呈先增加、后减小、再增加的趋势。3)河北省耕地“非粮化”聚类以“低-低”集聚和“高-高”集聚为主。4)河北省耕地“非粮化”是一个复杂的多因素驱动的现象, 而不是单一因素引发的。自然禀赋和生产条件因素对河北省耕地“非粮化”空间分异起主导作用, 经济水平对耕地“非粮化”的影响程度不断加深, 其中高程因素对西北部山区耕地“非粮化”解释程度最强, 而东南部平原区耕地“非粮化”过程受到经济因素(如人均GDP、城乡收入差值)的影响加深。对河北省耕地“非粮化”时空演变特征及其驱动因素的分析, 将进一步巩固耕地“非粮化”治理成果, 为政府制定耕地“非粮化”精准防治措施提供决策参考依据。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the rapid expansion of “non-grain” cultivated land in China has become a significant factor affecting food security. From the perspective of national food security, elucidating the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving factors of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province, is of great importance for preventing and controlling of “non-grain” cultivated land, and optimizing cultivated land use. This study employs a combination of spatial autocorrelation, migration of gravity center, and standard deviation ellipse model and geodetector to comprehensively analyze the spatial-temporal changes of the “non-grain” cultivated land and its driving factors in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that: 1) The average values of “non-grain” rates of cultivated land in Hebei Province in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 0.23, 0.24, 0.27, 0.26, and 0.20, respectively, demonstrating an overall trend of initial increase followed by a decrease. 2) The “non-grain” rates of cultivated land exhibited a spatial pattern of higher levels in the southeastern (Xingtai and Hengshui), northeastern (Tangshan and Qinhuangdao), and northwestern (Chengde and Zhangjiakou) regions of the Hebei Province, whereas it remained comparatively lower in other areas. The global Moran’s I index showed an initial increase, followed by a decrease, then a resurgence. 3) Over the past two decades, the clustering of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province has primarily been characterized by low-low and high-high clusters. The standard deviation ellipse and the gravity center of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province remained relatively stable from 2000 to 2015, with a significant northward shift since 2015. 4) The “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province is a complex phenomenon driven by multiple factors. The natural endowment and production condition of cultivated land played a dominant role in the spatial differentiation of “non-grain” cultivated land in Hebei Province, while the impact of economic level on “non-grain” cultivated land progressively intensified. In the northwestern mountainous area, elevation has the greatest impact on “non-grain” cultivation land, while in the southeastern plain area, economic factors such as GDP per capita and the urban-rural income gap had a greater impact. The results will further consolidate the achievements in the management of “non-grain” cultivated land in the province by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors. Subsequently, a reference framework will be developed to help government to formulate precise prevention and control measures for the “non-grain” cultivated land.

     

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