农业新质生产力发展水平时空演化及障碍因素研究

Study on the spatial and temporal evolution of the level of development of new agricultural productivity and the factors hindering it

  • 摘要: 新质生产力有望成为未来中国经济发展的新引擎, 培育农业农村领域的新质生产力, 不仅事关农村经济增长, 也是推进农业现代化进程的重要抓手。因此尝试构建农业新质生产力的评价指标体系, 采用2012—2022年中国30各省、自治区、直辖市(不包括中国香港、澳门、台湾和西藏)的面板数据, 使用纵横向拉开档次、Kernel密度估计、传统及空间Markov链、Dagum基尼系数测算分解和障碍度模型等方法对农业新质生产力发展水平、时空分异特征, 区域差异以及障碍因子等进行测度和识别。研究发现: 考察期内农业新质生产力发展水平呈平稳上升趋势; 东中西部地区、粮食主产区和非粮食主产区之间发展水平表现出明显差异; 从各维度来看,农业绿色生产力及数字生产力发展状况较好, 且研究期内, 数字生产力表现出强劲的增长势头。各省份的发展水平存在空间溢出效应, 会对邻近省份发展产生正向或负向的影响。东中西部区域间差异逐渐成为农业新质生产力发展的主要差异来源。准则层方面的科技生产力和融合生产力、指标层方面的农村数字基地数量和一、三产业融合程度成为农业新质生产力发展的主要障碍因素。

     

    Abstract: New quality productivity is expected to become a new engine for China’s economic development in the future, and cultivating new quality productivity in agriculture and rural areas is not only related to the growth of rural economy, but also an important hand in promoting the process of agricultural modernization. Therefore, this paper tries to construct the evaluation index system of new quality productivity in agriculture, adopting the panel data of 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2022, and using the longitudinal and transversal pulling grades, Kernel density estimation, traditional and spatial Markov chain, Dagum Gini coefficient measurement decomposition and obstacle degree model, etc., we analyze the level of development of the new quality productivity in agriculture The study found that the level of agricultural new quality productivity development was measured and identified by the following methods: the characteristics of spatial and temporal differentiation, regional differences, and obstacle factors. The study found that: the development level of agricultural new quality productivity showed a steady upward trend during the examination period; the development level between the east, central and west regions, the main food-producing regions and the non-food-producing regions showed obvious differences; In terms of the dimensions, green productivity and digital productivity in agriculture are in a better state of development, and digital productivity has shown strong growth during the study period. the development level of each province had spatial spillover effects, which would have a positive or negative impact on the development of the neighboring provinces, the difference between the regions in the east, central and west has gradually become the main source of differences in the development of agricultural new quality productivity. and the criterion level of The differences between regions in the East, Center and West have gradually become the main source of differences in the development of new quality agricultural productivity; scientific and technological productivity and integration productivity in the criterion layer, and the number of rural digital bases and the degree of integration of primary and tertiary industries in the indicator layer have become the main obstacles to the development of new quality agricultural productivity.

     

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