气候变化对农业经济韧性的影响效应研究财政支农的调节作用

The impact of climate change on agricultural economic resilience: Moderating effect of fiscal support for agriculture

  • 摘要: 在气候变化加剧的现实背景下, 有效发挥财政支农政策效能, 提升农业经济韧性水平对我国实现农业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于2004—2020年全国30个省(自治区、直辖市, 不包括香港、澳门、台湾和西藏)共1 326个县级行政区的面板数据, 采用固定效应模型和调节效应模型实证分析气候变化对农业经济韧性的影响, 并检验财政支农在其中的调节作用。研究发现, 以升温为主要特征的气候变化不利于提升农业经济韧性, 而财政支农可以有效缓解气候变化对农业经济韧性的负面影响。异质性分析进一步表明, 粮食主销区和低收入地区农业经济韧性受气候变化的影响更为明显。财政支农的调节作用也具有明显异质性, 财政支农在粮食主产区和低收入地区发挥了更显著的调节作用。据此, 建议积极落实农业经济韧性提升措施, 强化财政政策在农业气候适应与减缓措施上的支持力度, 实施区域差异化的农业经济韧性提升方案, 从而缓解气候变化的不利影响, 提升我国农业经济韧性。

     

    Abstract: Climate change has become one of the greatest threats to modern human society and economic development worldwide, particularly in the agricultural sectors of developing countries. In the context of addressing climate change, it is of great significance for China to effectively provide fiscal support for agriculture and enhance the resilience of the agricultural economy to realize high-quality development of agriculture in China. As a commonly used policy instrument, fiscal support for agriculture is regarded as an effective way to achieve these goals. However, research that quantifies the relationship between climate change and agricultural economic resilience or reveals the potential role of fiscal support for agriculture is limited. Therefore, based on a cross-country and county-level panel dataset from 2004 to 2020, which contains 1 326 counties (districts) from 30 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities, and excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan because of data availability issues) in China, we first applied a fixed-effect econometric model to empirically analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural economic resilience and then used a moderating effect model to test the moderating effects of fiscal support for agriculture therein. The heterogeneity of both functional regions for grain production and the income levels of rural residents were also considered. The benchmark regression results indicated that climate change, which is mainly characterized by temperature rise or warming, has a negative impact on agricultural economic resilience. These results remained valid after a set of robustness tests. The moderating effects of fiscal support for agriculture were tested and proven to exist during the study period, which means that fiscal support for agriculture in China could effectively mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural economic resilience. From the perspectives of both functional regions for grain production and the income level of rural residents, heterogeneity analysis showed that the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural economic resilience are more pronounced in the main grain-consuming regions and low-income regions than in other functional or income-level regions in China. The regulatory role of fiscal support for agriculture is heterogeneous. Fiscal support for agriculture exerted a more significant moderating effect in the main grain-producing and low-income regions during the study period, meaning that fiscal support for agriculture played a more effective role in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change in these regions than in other regions. Based on the research results, this study recommends that it is necessary to continually optimize climate policy schemes and implement effective policy instruments in the agricultural sector to enhance agricultural economic resilience, as well as to put more effort into climate-adaptive measures by strengthening fiscal support for agriculture. Additionally, regionally differentiated agricultural economic resilience enhancement programs should be considered to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on China’s agricultural economic resilience and to better serve the high-quality development of agriculture in China.

     

/

返回文章
返回