Abstract:
With the rapid urbanization in China, understanding its implications for agricultural economic development is essential for fostering urban-rural harmony and enhancing the quality of agricultural growth. This study aims to scrutinize the effects of new urbanization policies on the resilience of China's agricultural economy and their spatial spillover effects, using panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020, employs the Spatial Difference-in-Differences Model (SDM-DID) to conduct an empirical analysis, capturing the complex interplay between urbanization dynamics and agricultural resilience. The methodology involves a sophisticated application of the SDM-DID model, which integrates spatial econometrics to account for spatial autocorrelation and to control for the potential endogeneity in policy effects. This approach is crucial for isolating the causal impacts of new urbanization policies while considering the spatial interdependencies that may influence policy outcomes. The results reveal several key findings: First, spatial correlation analysis indicates a significant positive spatial correlation in China's agricultural economic resilience, manifesting as "high-high" and "low-low" clustering patterns. Second, the baseline regression results show that new urbanization policies significantly enhance the agricultural economic resilience of pilot provinces. Third, the spatial difference-in-differences results demonstrate that new urbanization policies have spatial spillover effects on agricultural economic resilience, with robustness confirmed through various tests, including changes in spatial weight matrices and placebo tests. Lastly, further mechanism analysis suggests that new urbanization policies primarily improve agricultural economic resilience through technological progress, optimization of industrial structure, and enhancement of rural human capital levels. The study's conclusions enrich the literature on the implementation effects of new urbanization by highlighting the role of agricultural economic resilience. It also provides policy-driven explanations for the continuous enhancement of agricultural economic resilience levels, underscoring the importance of spatial dynamics in policy design and evaluation. The innovative contribution of this research lies in its spatially informed analysis of policy impacts, offering valuable insights for policymakers aiming to balance urban development with agricultural sustainability. The study emphasizes the need for policies that consider the spatial dimensions of agricultural economic resilience to achieve broader economic and social benefits.