新型城镇化建设对我国农业经济韧性的影响研究基于空间双重差分模型的实证分析
The impact of new urbanization construction on the resilience of China’s agricultural economy: Empirical analysis based on the spatial difference-in-differences model
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摘要: 厘清中国新型城镇化与农业经济发展间的关系, 对实现城乡共荣、赋能农业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于2006—2020年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据, 运用空间双重差分模型(SDM-DID), 实证分析了新型城镇化战略对农业经济韧性的影响效应及其空间溢出效应。研究发现: 1)空间相关性分析显示, 中国农业经济韧性具有显著为正的空间相关性, 呈现出“高-高”型和“低−低”型聚集模式; 2)基准回归结果显示, 新型城镇化战略显著提高了试点省份的农业经济韧性; 3)空间双重差分结果表明, 新型城镇化战略对农业经济韧性产生空间溢出效应, 该结论在更换空间权重矩阵、安慰剂等一系列检验下仍具有稳健性; 4)进一步的机制分析表明, 新型城镇化战略主要通过技术进步、优化产业结构和提升农村人力资本水平来提高农业经济韧性。研究结论不仅从农业经济韧性的视角丰富了新型城镇化实施效果的研究成果, 同时也为农业经济韧性水平的提升提供了来自新型城镇化战略的解释。Abstract: Understanding the implications of rapid urbanization in China for agricultural economic development is essential for fostering urban-rural harmony and enhancing the quality of agricultural growth. This study scrutinized the effects of new urbanization policies on the resilience of China’s agricultural economy and their spatial spillover effects using panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020. It used the spatial difference-in-differences model (SDM-DID) to conduct an empirical analysis to capture the complex interplay between urbanization dynamics and agricultural resilience. The results showed that: 1) spatial correlation analysis indicated a significant positive spatial correlation in China’s agricultural economic resilience, manifesting as “high-high” and “low-low” clustering patterns. 2) The baseline regression results showed that new urbanization policies significantly enhanced the agricultural economic resilience of the pilot provinces. 3) The SDM-DID results demonstrated that new urbanization policies had spatial spillover effects on agricultural economic resilience, with robustness confirmed through various tests, including changes in spatial weight matrices and placebo tests. 4) The mechanistic analysis suggested that new urbanization policies primarily improved agricultural economic resilience through technological progress, industrial structure optimization, and rural human capital enhancement. The conclusions of this study enrich the literature on the effects of new urbanization construction by highlighting the role of agricultural economic resilience. The innovative contribution of this study lies in its spatially informed analysis of policy impacts that offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to balance urban development with agricultural sustainability. This study emphasizes the need for policies that consider the spatial dimensions of agricultural economic resilience to achieve broader economic and social benefits.