基于LMDI模型的辽宁省农业碳排放效率及驱动因素分析

Analysis of the agricultural carbon emissions efficiency and driving factors in Liaoning Province based on the LMDI model

  • 摘要: 为科学核算辽宁省农业碳排放强度和碳减排潜力, 基于2000—2021年辽宁省农用物资投入、农地利用、土壤碳排放、水稻种植和畜禽养殖5部分20类碳源的统计数据, 构建农业碳排放测算体系, 并采用碳源系数法对农业碳排放量进行测算, 采用超效率SBM模型测算辽宁省农业碳排放效率及其投入指标松弛量; 进一步运用LMDI模型分解农业碳排放主要的驱动因素: 农业生产效率、农业产业结构、农业经济发展水平、城镇化水平和农业劳动力规模, 计算其贡献值并探究其碳排放的效益值。结果表明: 1) 22年间辽宁省农业碳排放总量在前11年持续增长, 后11年波动降低, 农业碳排放强度波动降低。2)农用物资投入、农地利用、土壤碳排放、水稻种植、畜禽养殖导致的农业碳排放量年平均占比依次为36.72%、0.23%、11.36%、5.12%和46.58%。3) 22年间, 农业碳排放效率由0.19提升至1.04, 主要因为投入指标的持续优化, 具体表现为农业从业人数、农作物播种面积、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、农膜使用量和农药使用量等松弛量均逐渐减少。4)农业碳排放增长的驱动因素为农业经济发展水平和农业劳动力规模, 其累计碳排放效应分别为8 712.01万和266.98万t, 其占比分别为46.02%和1.41%; 碳减排的驱动因素为农业生产效率、农业产业结构和城镇化水平, 其累计碳排放效应分别为−9 596.30万、−238.09万和−116.33万t, 占比分别为50.69%、1.26%和0.61%。建议通过减少种植业化肥使用、优化畜禽养殖管理、提升农业技术效率、合理调整经营规模和推动农业产业结构调整, 实现辽宁省农业低碳化高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: To scientifically calculate the agricultural carbon emission intensity and carbon reduction potential in Liaoning Province, a calculation system for agricultural carbon emissions was constructed based on statistical data from 2000 to 2021, covering fiveaspects, namely agricultural material input, agricultural land use, soil carbon emissions, rice planting, and livestock and poultry farming, and accounting for 20 types of carbon sources. Carbon emissions were calculated using the carbon source coefficient method. The super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model was employed to measure the agricultural carbon emission efficiency and the slack amount of input indicators in Liaoning Province. Furthermore, the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model was used to decompose the main driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions, including agricultural production efficiency, agricultural industrial structure, agricultural economic development level, urbanization level, and agricultural labor force scale, calculate their contribution values, and explore the carbon emission benefits. Results indicated that over the 22-year period, the total agricultural carbon emissions in Liaoning Province continued to increase during the first 11 years and exhibited reduced fluctuations during the last 11 years, while the agricultural carbon emission intensity exhibited decreasing volatility. The annual average contributions to agricultural carbon emissions from sources such as agricultural material input, agricultural land use, soil carbon emissions, rice planting, and livestock and poultry farming were 36.72%, 0.23%, 11.36%, 5.12%, and 46.58%, respectively. Over the 22-year period, the agricultural carbon emission efficiency increased from 0.19 to 1.04 primarily because of the continuous optimization of input indicators, which manifested as a year-by-year reduction in slack amounts for indicators such as the employment in agriculture, crop planting area, total agricultural machinery power, effective irrigation area, amount of chemical fertilizer applied, amount of agricultural film used, and pesticide usage. The driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions were found to be the agricultural economic development level and agricultural labor force scale, with cumulative carbon emission effects of 8.71×107 (46.02%) and 0.27×107 (1.41%) t, respectively. The driving factors for carbon reduction were the agricultural production efficiency, agricultural industrial structure, and urbanization level, with cumulative carbon emission effects of −9.60×107 (50.69%), −0.24×107 (1.26%), and −0.12×107 (0.61%) t, respectively. It is recommended that low-carbon, high-quality agricultural development in Liaoning Province be achieved by reducing fertilizer usage in crop cultivation, optimizing livestock and poultry farming management, improving the agricultural technical efficiency, rationally adjusting the operational scale, and promoting agricultural structural adjustments.

     

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