Abstract:
To scientifically calculate the agricultural carbon emission intensity and carbon reduction potential in Liaoning Province, a calculation system for agricultural carbon emissions was constructed based on statistical data from 2000 to 2021, covering fiveaspects, namely agricultural material input, agricultural land use, soil carbon emissions, rice planting, and livestock and poultry farming, and accounting for 20 types of carbon sources. Carbon emissions were calculated using the carbon source coefficient method. The super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model was employed to measure the agricultural carbon emission efficiency and the slack amount of input indicators in Liaoning Province. Furthermore, the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model was used to decompose the main driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions, including agricultural production efficiency, agricultural industrial structure, agricultural economic development level, urbanization level, and agricultural labor force scale, calculate their contribution values, and explore the carbon emission benefits. Results indicated that over the 22-year period, the total agricultural carbon emissions in Liaoning Province continued to increase during the first 11 years and exhibited reduced fluctuations during the last 11 years, while the agricultural carbon emission intensity exhibited decreasing volatility. The annual average contributions to agricultural carbon emissions from sources such as agricultural material input, agricultural land use, soil carbon emissions, rice planting, and livestock and poultry farming were 36.72%, 0.23%, 11.36%, 5.12%, and 46.58%, respectively. Over the 22-year period, the agricultural carbon emission efficiency increased from 0.19 to 1.04 primarily because of the continuous optimization of input indicators, which manifested as a year-by-year reduction in slack amounts for indicators such as the employment in agriculture, crop planting area, total agricultural machinery power, effective irrigation area, amount of chemical fertilizer applied, amount of agricultural film used, and pesticide usage. The driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions were found to be the agricultural economic development level and agricultural labor force scale, with cumulative carbon emission effects of 8.71×10
7 (46.02%) and 0.27×10
7 (1.41%) t, respectively. The driving factors for carbon reduction were the agricultural production efficiency, agricultural industrial structure, and urbanization level, with cumulative carbon emission effects of −9.60×10
7 (50.69%), −0.24×10
7 (1.26%), and −0.12×10
7 (0.61%) t, respectively. It is recommended that low-carbon, high-quality agricultural development in Liaoning Province be achieved by reducing fertilizer usage in crop cultivation, optimizing livestock and poultry farming management, improving the agricultural technical efficiency, rationally adjusting the operational scale, and promoting agricultural structural adjustments.