塔里木河流域农地利用效率提升的多元路径探析

Analysis of multiple paths to improve agricultural land use efficiency in the Tarim River Basin

  • 摘要: 塔里木河流域受自然环境限制, 农业发展水平落后, 如何有效提升农地利用效率是该区域农业发展的重要探索方向。研究采用目标一致型两阶段网络SBM (Slack-Based Measure)模型和fsQCA (Fast Simple Quadratic Convolutional Algorithm)方法, 使用2010—2020年塔里木河流域5地州的数据, 对塔里木河流域农地利用效率提升的多元路径进行分析。从塔里木河流域农地利用整体效率分析, 巴音郭楞蒙古自治州效率最高, 克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州次之, 均远高于和田地区、阿克苏地区和喀什地区; 和田地区生产阶段效率最低, 但销售阶段效率最高, 其在农产品销售方面具有优势; 阿克苏地区生产阶段效率偏低, 销售阶段效率也处于五地州中最低水平。塔里木河流域农地利用效率受多重因素的共同作用, 单一的经济发展水平、产业结构、工业化水平、农业机械化程度、种植结构和种植规模不是提升塔里木河流域农地利用效率的必要条件。塔里木河流域农地利用效率提升多元路径主要有3种: 1)工业化水平和农业机械化程度主导, 产业结构和种植结构辅助; 2)经济发展水平、产业结构和农业机械化程度主导, 种植结构辅助; 3)工业化水平和农业机械化程度主导, 经济发展水平、产业结构和种植规模辅助。基于此, 建议政府因地制宜, 把握地区优势, 提高农业机械化水平, 全方位提升塔里木河流域农地利用效率。

     

    Abstract: The Tarim River Basin is limited by its natural environment and low agricultural activity. The improvement of agricultural land use efficiency is an important direction for the development of agriculture in this region. This study adopted a two-stage network SBM model with consistent goals and the fsQCA method using data from five provinces (preferctures) in the Tarim River Basin from 2010 to 2020 to analyze multiple paths for improving agricultural land use efficiency in the Tarim River Basin. From the analysis of the overall efficiency of agricultural land use in the Tarim River Basin, the Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture has the highest agricultural land use efficiency, followed by Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture, which is much higher than that of the Hotan, Aksu, and Kashgar regions. Production-stage agricultural land use efficiency was the lowest in the Hotan Region, but sales-stage agricultural land use efficiency was the highest, giving it an advantage in agricultural product sales. Production-stage agricultural land use efficiency in the Aksu Region is relatively low, and sales-stage agricultural land use efficiency is at the lowest level among the five prefectures. The level of economic development, industrial structure, industrialization level, degree of agricultural mechanization, planting structure, planting scale and other single factors are not necessary conditions for improving agricultural land use efficiency in the Tarim River Basin and require the joint action of multiple factors. There are three main paths to improve agricultural land utilization efficiency in the Tarim River Basin: the “industrialization level + degree of agricultural mechanization” dominant with “industrial structure + planting structure” edge type, the “level of economic development + industrial structure + degree of agricultural mechanization” dominant with “planting structure” edge type, and the “industrialization level + degree of agricultural mechanization” dominant with “level of economic development + industrial structure + planting scale” egde type. Therefore, policies should be tailored to local conditions and implemented accurately. For areas with agricultural land use efficiency, the government should increase investment in agricultural technology, pay attention to the tilt of agricultural resources, and improve the level of agricultural technology. For regions with high agricultural land use efficiency and good agricultural development level, we should seize industrial advantages, promote the transformation of agriculture towards standardization, digitization, and intensification, and build agriculture into a modern industry. We should grasp regional advantages and promote agricultural diversification. The natural environment and advantageous agricultural products vary across different regions (prefectures) of the Tarim River Basin. Therefore, it is necessary to combine locally advantageous products, construct brand effects, vigorously develop characteristic agriculture, and build a diversified, multilevel and multitype agricultural development system in various regions. We must improve the degree of agricultural mechanization and achieve agricultural modernization. The degree of agricultural mechanization is the core condition in all three configurations and plays a key role in improving agricultural land use efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the structure of agricultural machinery equipment, achieve marketization and socialization of agricultural machinery services, continuously improve the comprehensive production capacity of agriculture, promote grain yield increases, increase farmers’ income, and increase agricultural efficiency. Attention should be paid to regional economic development and leverage the driving role of the industry. Research has shown that a high-quality economic level, industrial structure, and industrialization level have greatly promoted the improvement of agricultural land use efficiency in the Tarim River Basin. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve the coordinated development of various industries in the Tarim River Basin, achieve the integration of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and comprehensively promote the diversified development of agriculture.

     

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