基于三阶段DEA的农业能源效率计算方法改进

Improvement of the method for calculating agricultural energy efficiency based on the three-stage Data Envelopment Aanlysis

  • 摘要: 精准测算是提高农业能源效率的基础, 有助于识别能源使用的瓶颈和潜力, 优化农业能源结构, 突破能源与环境双重约束, 进而有力有效地推进乡村全面振兴。概念辨析发现, 传统的农业能源效率测算结果实质是包含能源的农业生产效率。为科学合理地测算农业能源效率, 本文提出了一种基于三阶段数据包络分析(DEA)模型的改进计算方法, 并以中国30个省(自治区、直辖市, 不包括中国香港、澳门、台湾和西藏)的面板数据为样本进行测算, 对比原有方法的分析结果以验证改进方法的可靠性。结果表明: 1)随机前沿(SFA)分析可知, 环境变量和随机因素对能源效率影响显著, 说明该方法能够剔除生产因素对农业能源效率的影响, 从而规避部分测算结果高于实际值的问题; 2)与传统方法对比, 改进方法的估算结果与中国农业经济发展趋势更相符, 波动节点与相应政策出台时间更契合; 3)传统方法的估算结果会受物价和成本影响, 与真实农业能源效率产生较大偏离, 其中北京、上海和青海最为明显。综上所述, 改进的三阶段DEA农业能源效率测算方法明显优于传统方法, 可为企业及政府在农业节能减排方面提供更加准确的决策依据。

     

    Abstract: Energy is the basis for the development of modern society and an important guarantee for comfortable rural living and successful agricultural production. With industrialization and urbanization occurring rapidly in China, the demand for efficient energy in agricultural modernization will inevitably increase. In the face of increasingly severe global issues such as limited resources, environmental calamities, and food insecurity, accurate measurement is key to improving agricultural energy efficiency, facilitating users in identifying bottlenecks and potential in energy usage, optimizing the agricultural energy structure, and breaking through the dual constraints of energy and the environment, which in turn will effectively promote comprehensive rural revitalization. Previous concept exploration has revealed the existence of a conceptual intersection between conventional agricultural energy efficiency and agricultural production efficiency, where the calculation output of the former is in fact the latter including energy. To scientifically and logically calculate agricultural energy efficiency, we proposed an improved algorithm based on a three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. Based on the conventional one-stage calculation method, this algorithm applied a second-stage Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) and third-stage DEA analysis. Panel data from 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions, not including Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang of China) in China were used as a sample to test the updated algorithm. The reliability of the model was tested by comparing its calculated results with those obtained using the conventional method. The following observations were made: 1) Outputs from the second-stage SFA showed that the likelihood-ratio (LR) values of all input slack variables were greater than 10.501 (P<1%). The impacts of environmental variables and random factors on energy efficiency were significant, indicating that the SFA analysis is necessary and effective and can eliminate the effect of production factors on agricultural energy efficiency, thereby avoiding the problem of some calculated results being higher than the observed values. 2) Compared with the gap of approximately 0.1 derived from the conventional method of calculating agricultural energy efficiency in the past 20 years, the final (third-stage) efficiency value from the improved model increased from 0.240 in 2003 to 0.541 in 2018, demonstrating that the estimated result was more appropriate for the trend in China’s agricultural economy development. The fluctuation node was more consistent with the periods when the corresponding policies were introduced, such as the severe agricultural blow resulting from natural disasters at the end of the 20th century, the first China’s No. 1 central document with the theme of “Agriculture, Rural Areas, and Farmers” issued in 2004, the international economic and financial crisis in 2008, and other important nodes. 3) The estimates from the conventional method were greatly biased from actual values owing to price and cost influences, especially in Beijing, Qinghai, and Shanghai, where the differences between the traditional and improved models were 0.95, 0.87, and 0.77, respectively. In summary, the improved three-stage DEA method for calculating agricultural energy efficiency is superior to the conventional method, and can provide a more accurate decision-making basis for enterprises and governments in the fields of agricultural energy conservation and emissions reduction.

     

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