河北省农业碳排放效率与影响因素

Agricultural carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors in Hebei Province

  • 摘要: 河北省是农业大省, 且面临碳排放总量和碳排放强度双高的双重压力, 研究河北省农业碳排放效率对河北省农业实现低碳生产具有重要意义。本文基于2010—2022年河北省农业生产面板数据, 利用带有非期望产出的超效率数据包络模型(Super-SBM), 测算了河北省11个地级市农业碳排放效率, 基于全局要素生产率指数(GML)和泰尔指数对其时空分异特征进行了分析, 并在此基础上, 利用面板Tobit模型探究了影响农业碳排放效率的因素。结果表明: 2010—2022年, 河北省农业碳排放效率整体上呈波动上升状态, 并处于偏上的效率水平, 距离效率前沿面仍然存在3%的提升空间, 其中冀南地区的效率值提升幅度最大, 涨幅为0.82。河北省农业碳排放效率泰尔指数由2010年的0.025提升到2022年的0.031, 且泰尔指数地区内部差距大于地区之间差距, 说明冀东、冀中、冀北和冀南4大区域间的农业碳排放效率存在差异但差距较小, 区域内部间的差异大于区域间的差异。各地级市之间效率的极差呈波动上升趋势, 到2013年极差达0.89, 之后虽有所下降, 但2016年极差又达到0.86。秦皇岛市、承德市、廊坊市、衡水市、石家庄市、保定市、邢台市和邯郸市的技术效率和技术进步均对农业碳排放效率的提升做出了贡献, 而唐山市、张家口市和沧州市3个地级市农业碳排放效率的提升主要依赖于技术进步。全省农业的技术效率指数和技术进步指数分别以年均1%和13%的速度增长, 与技术效率相比, 技术进步是河北省农业碳排放效率提升的主要因素。农村经济发展水平、城镇化率、有效灌溉率和劳动力文化水平可以显著促进河北省农业碳排放效率提高, 而农业产业化结构和化肥施用强度对农业碳排放效率具有显著负向效应。

     

    Abstract: Hebei Province is a largely agricultural province facing the dual pressures of high levels of total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity. Studying its agricultural carbon emission efficiency is of great significance for achieving low-carbon agricultural production. Based on panel data on agricultural production from 2010 to 2022, this study measured the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of 11 cities in Hebei Province using the Super-SBM (Slack-Based Measure) model with non-expected output. Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics were analyzed based on the Global-Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index and the Theil index. This study further explored the factors influencing agricultural carbon emission efficiency using the Tobit model. The results showed that the overall efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province fluctuated from 2010 to 2022. It was generally at a high-efficiency level with 3% room for improvement from the efficiency frontier. The improvement in efficiency in the southern Hebei region was the most significant, with an increase of 0.82. The Theil index of agricultural carbon emission efficiency increased from 0.025 in 2010 to 0.031 in 2022. The differences in the Theil index within regions were greater than those between regions. This indicates that the differences in carbon emission efficiency among the four major regions of eastern, central, northern, and southern Hebei were small and the differences within regions were significantly larger than those between regions. The efficiency gap between different cities showed a fluctuating upward trend. The range reached a level of 0.89 by 2013. Although it decreased thereafter, the range reached 0.86 again by 2016. The technological efficiency and technological progress of eight cities, namely Qinhuangdao, Chengde, Langfang, Hengshui, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Xingtai, and Handan, contributed to the improvement of agricultural carbon emissions efficiency. The improvement in emission efficiency in three cities, namely Tangshan, Zhangjiakou, and Cangzhou, primarily relied on technological progress. The technical efficiency index and technical progress index of agriculture in the province grew at average annual rates of 1% and 13%, respectively. Technological progress was the main factor in improving the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province. However, comprehensive agricultural environmental management still needs to be enhanced. The development level of rural economic, urbanization rate, effective irrigation rate, and education level of labor force were significant drivers for improving agricultural carbon emission efficiency. The structure of agricultural industrialization and fertilizer application intensity had significant negative effects on agricultural carbon emissions efficiency.

     

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