Can agricultural production service policies promote the green transformation of rice production? - Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

Agricultural production-related service policies are crucial measures for promoting the green transformation of agriculture. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to scientifically assess their impact on the carbon efficiency of rice production and the underlying mechanisms. This paper uses the pilot policy of full-process socialized services for agricultural production implemented in batches in 2013 and 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the panel data of 85 counties and districts in Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2022, it uses the super-efficiency SBM model, the progressive difference-in-differences method, and the mechanism test model to systematically evaluate the impact effect, mechanism, and heterogeneity characteristics of this policy on the carbon efficiency of rice production. The findings are as follows: 1) The implementation of agricultural production-related service policies significantly improves the carbon efficiency of rice production, with an average promotion effect of approximately 4.8%; 2) The policy effect has time lags and persistence, and its promotion effect gradually strengthens with the duration of policy implementation; 3) The policy effect exhibits significant heterogeneity, being more prominent in grain-producing counties, counties with higher agricultural infrastructure levels, and counties with greater topographic undulation; 4) The mechanism test indicates that the policy mainly promotes the improvement of rice production carbon efficiency through two paths: "improving the level of agricultural production-related services" and "increasing the efficiency of grain production". Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen the long-term planning and dynamic adaptation of agricultural production-related service policies, enhance the synergy of policy implementation paths, and more effectively promote the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture.