Influence of agricultural land transfer on agricultural non-point source pollution and its spatial spillover effect*

Agricultural non-point source pollution (ANNSP) is an important environmental problem in China’s agriculture and an important obstacle to its sustainable development. Existing studies rarely analyze the effect of agricultural land transfer, an important agricultural reform, on the control of ANPSP, and the identification of the environmental benefits of agricultural land transfer. Therefore, based on the existing results, this study theoretically analyzed the impact of agricultural land transfer on the ANNSP and discussed its spatial spillover effect. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China (due to differences in agricultural development, HongKong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang was not included) from 2005 to 2021, the study analyzed the effects of agricultural land transfer on the ANNSP by combining the dual fixed effect regression, intermediate effect, and spatial econometric models. The results showed that agricultural land transfer has a significant negative impact on ANPSP at the 5% level with an influence coefficient of −0.21. This result was still valid after the robustness test and endogeneity disposal. Agricultural land transfer reduced ANPSP by expanding the scale of agricultural operations and increasing the proportion of grain planting. The influence coefficient of agricultural land transfer on agricultural operation scale was 0.26, and the influence coefficient of agricultural operation scale on ANPSP was −0.23. The influence coefficient of farmland transfer on the grain planting ratio was 0.29, and the influence of the grain planting ratio on the ANPSP was −0.28. The negative impact of agricultural land transfer on ANPSP has a significant spatial spillover effect. Agricultural land transfer can not only reduce ANPSP in the region but also the surrounding areas. The results suggest that all regions should actively promote the transfer of agricultural land, promote the moderate-scale management of agriculture and the greening of grain planting, and promote regional cooperation in pollution control to enhance the sustainable development of agriculture.