Environmental negative externality evaluation, spatiotemporal evolution, and influencing factors affecting rice production in Hunan Province

Research on the indirect value of rice production has mainly focused on ecosystem service functions with relatively little research on externalities. Evaluating the negative environmental externalities of rice production can help promote agricultural ecological prevention, control, and civilization strategies. This study used panel data from prefecture-level cities in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2023. Using methods such as the market value method, standard deviation ellipse, trend surface analysis, geographic detector, and OLS regression, the environmental negative externality value of rice production was calculated from six aspects, including greenhouse gas emissions. Its spatiotemporal evolution was also analyzed. Simultaneously, the impacts of various natural and socioeconomic factors on the negative externality value of rice production was explored. The results showed that: 1) The average annual negative environmental externality value of rice production in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2023 was 24.679 billion yuan, and the negative externality value was mainly composed of greenhouse gas emissions (45.76%) and fertilizer pollution (20.74%). 2) From 2000 to 2014, the overall negative environmental externality value of rice production in Hunan Province showed a slow upward trend. After peaking in 2014, the growth trend was controlled and exhibited a slight downward fluctuation, reflecting the effectiveness of agricultural ecological protection in the new era. 3) The negative externality value exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with a higher concentration in the central and eastern regions of Hunan Province. The spatial distribution was characterized by higher values in the central and eastern regions and lower values in the western regions. The density of the negative externality value was uneven across regions and the overall spatial distribution was relatively stable over time without significant migration. 4) The negative environmental externality value of rice production was influenced by the coupling of natural and socioeconomic factors, and the interaction of these factors enhanced its explanatory power. Negative externalities were significantly and negatively correlated with the average slope and total retail sales of consumer goods. Negative externalities were significantly and positively correlated with precipitation resources, average elevation, regional GDP, rural population, per capita disposable income of rural residents, and the total power of agricultural machinery. This study innovatively analyzes the negative externalities of rice production in Hunan Province from a specific research object and dynamic spatial perspective, and puts forward suggestions for strengthening agricultural ecological protection and controlling the negative environmental externalities of rice production from the perspectives of government guidance, market guidance, farmer participation, and technological support.