Evaluation of policy implementation for cultivated land protection based on accelerating genetic algorithm projection pursuit model

The security of cultivated land resources is an important guarantee for maintaining social stability and national food security. Cultivated land protection policies are merely programs of action that contain values until they are implemented. As such, their effectiveness can only be realized through actual implementation. This study analyzes and quantifies the effect of cultivated land protection policy (CLPP) implementation, provide data support and decision support for improving the evaluation of CLPP implementation, and expand the improvement and innovation of the evaluation method for land policy implementation. This work constructs an evaluation index system for the implementation effect of cultivated land protection policies, and uses the real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm and projection pursuit classificationtechnique to reveal the level of the CLPP implementation of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang.. The spatiotemporal variation law of the CLPP implementation effect is explored using an exploratory spatial data analysis model, trend surface analysis, and spatiotemporal transition technology. The results show the following: 1) The level of CLPP implementation in various provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) demonstrated an overall fluctuating upward trend. 2) Regarding the spatial pattern, the CLPP implementation effect exhibit the spatial structure of being “high in the eastern region but low in the western region” and being “high in the northern region but low in the southern region” in the east-west direction and the north-south direction, respectively. 3) Regarding spatial correlation, the CLPP implementation effect has spatial agglomeration and heterogeneity across the country. Furthermore, the effect transition of CLPP shows path dependence and spatial lock-in characteristics. 4) Regarding decomposition components, the constraints are the cultivated land production function, cultivated land social security function and cultivated land supervision level. Given these conditions, the implementation level of CLPP needs to be improved. Moreover, it is restricted by the background conditions and environment of cultivated land in each region. Therefore, governance strategies must be formulated according to local conditions.