Analyzing the carbon emission-reducing and sink-increasing effects of rural industrial integration: a case study of Xinjiang, a typical arid zone

Clarifying the carbon-reducing and sink-enhancing effects of rural industrial integration and optimizing the path of agricultural and rural emission reduction and carbon sequestration have important theoretical and practical values for the green transformation of agriculture. Based on the panel data of 13 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang region from 2007 to 2022, the article analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution law of rural industrial integration, agricultural carbon emission and agricultural carbon sinks, and explores the impact of rural industrial integration on agricultural carbon reduction and sink enhancement and its role mechanism using two-way panel fixed effect model. The study found that: (1) the development trend of the level of rural industrial integration and the total amount of agricultural carbon sinks are similar, both of which have gone through three stages of ‘fluctuating growth-rapid decline-rapid growth’; the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions has gone through the stage of ‘slow growth-rapid growth’; and the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions has gone through the stage of ‘slow growth-rapid growth’. The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions has gone through two stages of ‘slow growth-rapid decline to stabilization’. The spatial distribution pattern of the level of rural industrial integration is characterized by high in the central and eastern part of the country and low in the western part of the country, and it has obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics, which are mainly manifested in the two patterns of ‘high - high’ and ‘low - low’ agglomeration. It is mainly characterized by ‘high-high’ and ‘low-low’ agglomeration. The areas with high agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sinks are mainly concentrated in the border port economic zone. The Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture realized the misalignment of agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sinks in 2018. (2) Rural industrial integration has a positive effect on agricultural carbon reduction and sink enhancement, resulting in a reduction of agricultural carbon emissions by 0.049% to 0.052% and an increase of agricultural carbon sinks by 0.060% to 0.090%, a conclusion that still holds after robustness and endogeneity tests. (3) Mechanism analysis shows that rural industrial integration realizes agricultural carbon reduction and sink enhancement by releasing the ‘technology dividend’ and ‘factor dividend’ and promoting green technological change and factor allocation. Specifically, rural industrial integration reduces agricultural carbon emission reductions by promoting green technological innovation and large-scale land management, and increases agricultural carbon sinks by promoting green technological progress and upgrading rural human capital. Accordingly, it is proposed to build a “regionally adapted” industrial integration model, focusing on the “water-carbon” synergy mechanism and strengthening the “green technology-human capital” dual-wheel drive. In this regard, it is proposed to build a “regionally adapted” industrial integration model, focusing on the “water-carbon” synergy mechanism and strengthening the “green technology-human capital” dual-wheel drive, in order to crack the spatial development imbalance phenomenon and innovate the industrial integration path in arid areas, so as to accelerate the realization of agricultural emission reduction and carbon sequestration and the high-quality development of agricultural economy.