Accounting of agricultural carbon emissions and analysis of influencing factors in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Economic Circle of Inner Mongolia

Agricultural carbon emissions accounting, a crucial step in identifying the main sources of carbon emissions in agricultural activities, plays an indispensable role in promoting the development of green and low-carbon agriculture and advancing the process of agricultural modernization. This serves as a powerful support for achieving high-quality agricultural development. This study took the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Economic Circle in Inner Mongolia, which has a unique regional advantage, as the research object. Based on panel data from 2011 to 2020, carbon emissions from three aspects of the region’s crop production, livestock farming, and energy consumption were accounted for. The dynamic change characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in the study area were revealed by analyzing the spatial and temporal changes. Combined with agricultural carbon emission intensity, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos of the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Economic Circle in Inner Mongolia were comparatively analyzed, and a LMDI model was constructed to explore the various factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions. The research results showed that: 1) In the crop production, the primary sources of carbon emissions were the application of nitrogen fertilizer in the process of crop planting and growth. In the livestock farming, CH₄ produced during enteric fertmentation was the major contributor to carbon emissions. In terms of energy consumption, the carbon emissions primarily originated from the production of agricultural plastic films, and effective irrigation. 2) Total agricultural carbon emissions in the study area showed a gradual down trend. Carbon emissions from the livestock farming ranked first, accounting for more than 50%, and the decline is relatively obvious; carbon emissions from crop production was second, showing a gentle trend. 3) Total agricultural carbon emissions in Ordos was the largest and more than double that observed in Baotou. In Hohhot, the main carbon sources were crop production and livestock farming. The total carbon emissions in Ordos showed a trend of first rising, and then falling, and the main carbon sources were crop production and livestock farming. Total carbon emissions from Baotou remained relatively stable and low. 4) The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the study area decreased from 5.423 2 t∙(10⁴ ¥)⁻¹ in 2011 to 2.567 1 t∙(10⁴ ¥)⁻¹ in 2020, indicating a positive trend in the development of green and low-carbon agriculture. In particular, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Baotou was higher than that in Hohhot and Ordos. 5) Agricultural production efficiency and economic scale were important factors promoting an increase in agricultural carbon emissions, with agricultural production efficiency being the most significant. Human resource input, agricultural carbon emission intensity, and non-urbanization level inhibited agricultural carbon emissions in the study area, among which agricultural carbon emission intensity was the most important inhibitory factor. The results of this study can provide a scientific pathway for agricultural carbon emission reduction in the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Economic Circle in Inner Mongolia, with the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.