Accounting of agricultural carbon emission and analysis of influencing factors in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle of Inner Mongolia

Agricultural carbon emissions accounting, a crucial step in identifying the main sources of carbon emissions in agricultural activities, plays an indispensable role in promoting the development of green and low-carbon agriculture and advancing the process of agricultural modernization. This serves as a powerful support for achieving high-quality agricultural development. This study took the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle in Inner Mongolia, which has a unique regional advantage, as the research object. Based on panel data from 2011 to 2020, carbon emissions from three aspects of the region’s crop production, livestock farming, and energy consumption were accounted for. The dynamic change characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in the study area were revealed by analyzing the changing trends in the time series and differences in spatial distribution. Combined with agricultural carbon emission intensity, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos Cities of the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle in Inner Mongolia were comparatively analyzed, and an LMDI model was constructed to explore the various factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions. The research results showed that: 1) In the crop production, the primary sources of carbon emissions were the application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides during crop cultivation. In the livestock farming industry, it was mainly the CH₄ gas produced by the fermentation of livestock feed during intestinal digestion. In terms of energy consumption, the greenhouse gas emissions primarily originated from the use of agricultural plastic films, agricultural diesel, and effective irrigation. 2) Total agricultural carbon emissions in the study area showed a stable yet gradual uptrend. Carbon emissions from the crop production ranked first, accounting for more than 40%, followed by energy consumption. The livestock farming contributed the least to total emissions and demonstrated a clear downward trend. 3) Total agricultural carbon emissions in Hohhot and Ordos were approximately equal and nearly twice those observed in Baotou. In Hohhot, the main carbon sources were the crop production and energy consumption. The total carbon emissions in Ordos showed a trend of “first rising and then falling and then stable” and the main carbon sources were the crop production and the livestock farming. The total carbon emissions from Baotou remained relatively stable and low. 4) The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the study area decreased from 4.584 t∙(10⁴¥)⁻¹ in 2011 to 2 752 t∙(10⁴¥)⁻¹ in 2020, indicating a positive trend in the development of green and low-carbon agriculture. In particular, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Baotou and Ordos were significantly higher than in Hohhot. 5) Agricultural production efficiency and economic scale were important factors promoting an increase in agricultural carbon emissions, with agricultural production efficiency being the most significant. Human resource input, agricultural carbon emission intensity, and non-urbanization level inhibited agricultural carbon emissions in the study area, among which human resource input was the most important inhibitory factor. The results of this study can provide a scientific research path for agricultural carbon emission reduction work in the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle in Inner Mongolia, with the goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality.