农业生产性服务政策能否促进水稻生产绿色转型?——来自准自然实验的证据

Can agricultural production service policies promote the green transformation of rice production? - Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

  • 摘要: 农业生产性服务政策作为推动农业绿色转型的重要举措,科学评估其对水稻生产碳效率的影响效应与作用机制具有重要的理论与实践意义。本文以2013年与2016年分批实施的农业生产全程社会化服务试点政策作为一项准自然实验,基于2010—2022年江西省85个县区的面板数据,采用超效率SBM模型、渐进双重差分法及机制检验模型,系统评估该政策对水稻生产碳效率的影响效应、作用机制与异质性特征。研究发现:1)农业生产性服务政策实施显著提升了水稻生产碳效率,平均促进效应约为4.8%;2)政策效果具有时滞性与持续性,其促进效应随政策实施年限逐步增强;3)政策效果存在显著异质性,在粮食主产县、农业基础设施水平较高及地形起伏度较大的县域中表现更为突出;4)机制检验表明,政策主要通过“提升农业生产性服务水平”与“提高粮食生产效率”两条路径推动水稻生产碳效率提升。据此,建议加强农业生产性服务政策的长远规划与动态适配,强化政策实施路径的协同作用,以更有效地促进农业绿色低碳转型。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural production-related service policies are crucial measures for promoting the green transformation of agriculture. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to scientifically assess their impact on the carbon efficiency of rice production and the underlying mechanisms. This paper uses the pilot policy of full-process socialized services for agricultural production implemented in batches in 2013 and 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the panel data of 85 counties and districts in Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2022, it uses the super-efficiency SBM model, the progressive difference-in-differences method, and the mechanism test model to systematically evaluate the impact effect, mechanism, and heterogeneity characteristics of this policy on the carbon efficiency of rice production. The findings are as follows: 1) The implementation of agricultural production-related service policies significantly improves the carbon efficiency of rice production, with an average promotion effect of approximately 4.8%; 2) The policy effect has time lags and persistence, and its promotion effect gradually strengthens with the duration of policy implementation; 3) The policy effect exhibits significant heterogeneity, being more prominent in grain-producing counties, counties with higher agricultural infrastructure levels, and counties with greater topographic undulation; 4) The mechanism test indicates that the policy mainly promotes the improvement of rice production carbon efficiency through two paths: "improving the level of agricultural production-related services" and "increasing the efficiency of grain production". Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen the long-term planning and dynamic adaptation of agricultural production-related service policies, enhance the synergy of policy implementation paths, and more effectively promote the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture.

     

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