黄淮海平原耕地时空变化格局及影响因子分析——以山东省金乡县为例

  • 摘要: 为更有效保护山东省金乡县的耕地资源,促进农业可持续发展,基于1990—2020年的土地利用遥感数据,通过统计分析、核密度估计和重心迁移模型等方法,运用QGIS平台,结合野外调查,对金乡县近30年的耕地数量与耕地质量变化展开分析。结果表明,1990—2020年期间金乡县耕地面积持续缩减,耕地非农化程度加强,主要表现为向建设用地转变;耕地非农化的热点区域主要集中在城镇化活跃的东北部和东南部,且在2000—2010年期间更活跃,在区域间更不均衡。在耕地质量方面,金乡县耕地近10年土壤有机质含量提高,但上壤下黏的基质构型面积减少约1/10,为区域耕地生产力带来损失。皮尔逊相关分析结果表明,金乡县耕地非农化的影响因子主要有:地方财政收入(r = 0.912, p<0.01)、城镇化率(r = 0.711, p<0.05)、距县城中心距离(r = -0.766, p<0.05)、农业总产值(r = -0.667, p<0.05)。金乡县耕地时空变化是城镇化进程、经济发展及农业政策等因素综合影响的结果,研究为当地的耕地保护提供参考,对于促进土地的可持续管理和保障区域粮食安全具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: In order to more effectively protect the arable land resources in Jinxiang County, Shandong Province and promote sustainable agricultural development, based on land use remote sensing data from 1990 to 2020, this study analyzed the changes in arable land quantity and quality in Jinxiang County over the past 30 years using methods such as statistical analysis, kernel density estimation, and center of gravity transfer models, and combined with field investigations using QGIS platform. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, the cultivated land area in Jinxiang County continued to decrease, and the degree of non-agricultural use of cultivated land increased, mainly manifested as a shift towards construction land; The hotspots of non-agricultural cultivation of arable land are mainly concentrated in the northeast and southeast regions where urbanization is active, and were more active from 2000 to 2010, with greater regional imbalance. In terms of cultivated land quality, the soil organic matter content in Jinxiang County's cultivated land has increased in the past 10 years, but the area of the substrate configuration with upper soil and lower soil viscosity has decreased by about 1/10, causing losses to regional cultivated land productivity. The Pearson correlation analysis results indicate that the main influencing factors of non-agricultural land use in Jinxiang County are: local fiscal revenue (r=0.912, p<0.01), urbanization rate (r=0.711, p<0.05), distance from the county center (r=-0.766, p<0.05), and total agricultural output value (r=-0.667, p<0.05). The spatiotemporal changes of cultivated land in Jinxiang County are the result of the comprehensive influence of urbanization process, economic development, and agricultural policies. Research provides reference for local cultivated land protection and is of great significance for promoting sustainable land management and ensuring regional food security.

     

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