耕地利用隐性转型何以提升农业碳排放效率?

How does recessive farmland use transition improve agricultural carbon emission efficiency?

  • 摘要: 耕地利用隐性转型为农业碳减排开辟了新的路径。基于2007-2023年省级面板数据,在测度耕地利用隐性转型和农业碳排放效率的基础上,采用双向固定效应模型和门槛效应模型,探究耕地利用隐性转型对农业碳排放效率的影响效应和作用机制。研究发现:耕地利用隐性转型能够显著提高农业碳排放效率,且该结论经过多种稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明,耕地利用隐性转型对农业碳排放效率的影响在西部地区、经济欠发达地区和农业基础较弱地区的影响效果更为突出。机制检验显示,耕地利用隐性转型主要通过促进农业技术升级、技术进步以及产业结构优化来提高农业碳排放效率。门槛效应检验发现,人均耕地面积在其中发挥关键调节作用,随着人均耕地面积增加,耕地利用隐性转型对农业碳排放效率的促进效应呈现边际效应递减的单门槛非线性特征。据此, 提出应因地制宜引导耕地利用隐性转型,优化耕地资源配置,强化农业低碳技术创新的渗透与应用,以技术驱动与结构优化协同推动耕地利用绿色转型,推进耕地适度规模经营,实施区域差异化的碳减排策略,助力实现“双碳目标”。
     

     

    Abstract: Recessive farmland use transition has opened a new pathway for agricultural carbon emission reduction. While existing studies have primarily focused on the impact of farmland use transition on agricultural carbon emissions, few have explored how recessive farmland use transition affects agricultural carbon emission efficiency, indicating a need to broaden the scope and depth of research in this area. Based on panel data from 31 provinces spanning 2007 to 2023, this study employs the entropy method and a super-efficient SBM model that incorporates undesirable outputs to measure recessive farmland use transition and agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Using two-way fixed effects and threshold regression models, it examines the impact and mechanisms of recessive farmland use transition on agricultural carbon emission efficiency. The findings indicate that recessive farmland use transition significantly enhances agricultural carbon emission efficiency, a result that remains robust under multiple robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect varies significantly across regions with different geographical conditions, economic development levels, and agricultural foundations, with particularly pronounced impacts in western, economically less developed, and agriculturally weaker regions. Mechanism tests demonstrate that recessive farmland use transition improves agricultural carbon emission efficiency mainly through three channels: promoting technological upgrading, accelerating technological progress, and optimizing industrial structure. First, it facilitates the upgrading of agricultural production technologies, reducing input factors and improving utilization efficiency, thereby raising agricultural productivity. Second, it encourages the adoption of mechanized and intelligent equipment, accelerating the practical implementation of technological progress in agricultural production. Third, it generates industrial linkage effects, driving regional industrial structure toward green and low-carbon adjustment. Threshold effect tests confirm that cultivated land area per capita plays a key moderating role, exhibiting a single-threshold nonlinear characteristic of diminishing marginal effects: as cultivated land area per capita increases, the promoting effect of recessive farmland use transition on agricultural carbon emission efficiency gradually declines. This implies that in regions with smaller per capita cultivated land areas, promoting recessive transition yields higher returns, whereas once a certain scale is reached, its potential for efficiency gains relatively diminishes. Accordingly, this study proposes that recessive farmland use transition should be guided according to regional conditions, with optimized allocation of farmland resources and enhanced penetration and application of low-carbon agricultural technology innovations. Through the synergy of technology-driven approaches and structural optimization for green farmland transformation, along with appropriately scaled farmland management and regionally differentiated carbon reduction strategies, China can effectively accelerate progress toward its “dual carbon” goals.
     

     

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