印度河上游流域融雪径流时间的变化特征及其驱动因素

Characterizing changes in snowmelt runoff timing and their driving factors in the Upper Indus Basin

  • 摘要: 气候变化正显著改变寒冷山区的融雪径流过程与时间, 并加剧其波动性, 从而给依赖融雪补给区域的防洪与下游灌溉管理带来更大挑战。因此, 本研究选取印度河上游流域(UIB)及其子流域, 采用“流量质心时间(CT)”、“春季脉冲开始(SPO)” 以及“月径流比例(MFS)”等指标, 综合评估了融雪径流量及其时序的变化特征, 并揭示了融雪径流时间对不同气候变量的响应规律以及各子流域间的空间异质性。结果表明, 近几十年来, UIB的春季和冬季径流显著增加, 导致后期融雪径流量减少; 基于CT与SPO的分析均表明, UIB融雪径流时间呈显著提前趋势, 且在各子流域间呈现明显的空间异质性。融雪时间变化与温度及积雪覆盖的关系较降水更为密切: 在冰川广布的喀喇昆仑地区以及积雪覆盖率较高的Gilgit和Astore流域, 径流提前主要受温度调控, 现象尤为显著; 而Kharmong流域的径流变化则对降水响应更为敏感。尽管CT与SPO在捕捉复杂融雪过程时存在一定不确定性, 但其所揭示的径流时空演变规律, 对区域水资源适应性管理具有重要的科学意义。

     

    Abstract: Climate warming is fundamentally restructuring the hydrological regimes of high-altitude cryospheric basins, presenting critical challenges for downstream water security. This study investigates the spatiotemporal shifts in snowmelt runoff timing across the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) and its six major sub-basins from 1971 to 2017. By integrating multiple indicators including Center Time (CT), Spring Pulse Onset (SPO), and Monthly Fractional Streamflow (MFS), we quantified the runoff response to multifaceted climatic forcing. Results indicate that while annual runoff shows an insignificant upward trend of 6.4 mm/10a, winter and spring discharge significantly increased, suggesting a systemic depletion of seasonal snowpack storage. Both CT and SPO analyses demonstrate a robust advancement of snowmelt timing across the UIB with rates of –1.1 and –2.2 days/10a respectively. Spatial heterogeneity in these shifts is driven by distinct cryospheric-climatic interactions: in the glaciated Karakoram regions and snow-dominant sub-basins such as Gilgit and Astore, runoff timing is primarily modulated by thermal forcing; conversely, the Kharmong basin, characterized by lower snowpack coverage, exhibits a more immediate runoff response to precipitation variations. These hydrological shifts characterize the increasing mismatch between meltwater supply and downstream irrigation demands during critical crop growing seasons. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding the sensitivity of alpine hydrological processes to climate change.

     

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