基于加速遗传算法投影寻踪模型的耕地保护政策执行评估研究

Evaluation of policy implementation for cultivated land protection based on accelerating genetic algorithm projection pursuit model

  • 摘要: 耕地资源安全是维护社会稳定和国家粮食安全的重要保障。耕地保护政策在真正执行之前仅仅是含有价值观念的行动方案, 其成效唯有通过实际执行才能得以显现。分析并量化耕地保护政策执行效应, 可为完善耕地保护政策执行评估提供数据支撑和决策支持, 拓展土地政策执行评估方法的改进与创新。本文构建了耕地保护政策执行效应的评价指标体系, 并运用加速遗传算法投影寻踪模型揭示了中国30个省(自治区、直辖市, 未包括香港、澳门、台湾和西藏)耕地保护政策执行效应, 同时借助探索性空间分析、空间趋势面分析以及时空跃迁技术等模型探索其时空变化规律。研究结果表明: 1)耕地保护政策执行效应呈先下降后上升再下降趋势; 2)耕地保护政策执行效应在东西和南北方向上分别呈现“东高西低”和“南高北低”的空间结构特征; 3)耕地保护政策执行效应存在空间集聚性和异质性, 且表现出路径依赖和空间锁定的特征; 4)耕地保护政策执行效应制约因子为耕地生产功能、耕地社会保障功能和耕地督察等。由此可见, 耕地保护政策执行水平有待提升, 且受各区域耕地本底条件与环境制约, 需因地制宜制定治理策略。

     

    Abstract: The security of cultivated land resources is important for maintaining social stability and national food security. Cultivated land protection policies are programs of action maintaining value until they are implemented. As such, their effectiveness can only be realized through an actual implementation. We analyzed and quantified the effects of cultivated land protection policy (CLPP) implementation, provide data and decision support to improve the evaluation of CLPP implementation, and expand the improvement and innovation of the evaluation method for land policy implementation. We constructed an evaluation index system for the implementation effect of CLPPs and used the accelerating genetic algorithm projection pursuit model to reveal the level of CLPP implementation in Chinese 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Xizang. The spatiotemporal variation law of CLPP implementation was explored using an exploratory spatial data analysis model, trend surface analysis, and spatiotemporal transition technology. The results showed the following: 1) The level of CLPP implementation in various provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) demonstrated a trend of decreasing first, then increasing and then decreasing. 2) Regarding the spatial pattern, the CLPP implementation effect exhibited spatial structure of being “high in the eastern region but low in the western region” and being “high in the southern region but low in the northern region” in the east-west direction and the north-south direction. 3) Regarding spatial correlation, the CLPP implementation effect had spatial agglomeration and heterogeneity across countries. Furthermore, the effect transition of the CLPP exhibited path dependence and spatial lock-in characteristics. 4) Regarding the decomposition components, the constraints were the cultivated land production function, social security function, and supervision level. Given these conditions, the implementation of CLPP must be improved. Furthermore, it is restricted by background conditions and the environment of the cultivated land in each region. Therefore, governance strategies must be formulated based on the local conditions.

     

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