农业种植固碳减排与粮食安全协同发展研究综述

Review on the coordinated development of carbon sequestration and emission reduction in agricultural planting and food security*

  • 摘要: 在“双碳”背景下, 农业种植作为粮食供应的基础性产业, 兼具碳源与碳汇的双重属性, 还担负着保障固碳减排与粮食安全的重任。因此, 如何在保障粮食数量与质量稳定发展的同时, 实现农业种植固碳减排与国家粮食安全的协同发展成为了全社会共同关注的焦点。目前, 农业种植固碳减排与粮食安全尚未纳入同一框架进行完整、系统的研究, 特别是在耦合关系、协同机制与发展路径方面研究甚少。因此, 本文在农业种植固碳减排与粮食安全的内涵、测度方法、时空格局和影响因素以及协同发展等方面, 对国内外相关文献进行了梳理、归纳和总结。同时, 在剖析了农业种植固碳减排与粮食安全可能存在的冲突和协同的基础上发现, 农业种植通过轮作、精准施肥等技术可实现碳减排与增产的双赢, 且二者在技术创新、政策引导下存在着更强的协同性。然而, 现有研究存在明显不足。未来研究需聚焦以下4个方面: 一是构建更加合理科学的耦合协调度模型以克服传统模型结果存在的波动性和不可比性; 二是运用探索性数据分析工具与Kernel核密度估计等, 分析其协同发展的时空变化及其演变特征; 三是开展不同情景下农业种植固碳减排与粮食安全协同发展的机制与路径研究; 四是引入大数据和人工智能等现代信息技术建立统一的监测网络和数据共享平台等, 最终为我国农业“双碳”目标实现和保障国家粮食安全和谐共进提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of “dual carbon”, agricultural planting, as a fundamental industry for food supply, not only possesses the dual attributes of carbon source and sink, but also bears the responsibility of ensuring carbon sequestration, emission reduction, and food security. Therefore, how to achieve the coordinated development of carbon sequestration and emission reduction in agricultural planting and national food security while ensuring the stable development of food quantity and quality has become a common concern of the whole society. At present, the carbon sequestration and emission reduction in agricultural planting and food security have not been fully and systematically studied within the same framework, especially in terms of their coupling relationship, collaborative mechanism, and development path. Therefore, this article reviews, summarizes, and generalizes relevant literature at home and abroad on the connotation, measurement methods, spatiotemporal patterns, influencing factors, and collaborative development of carbon sequestration and emission reduction in agricultural planting and food security. At the same time, based on the analysis of the possible conflicts and synergies between carbon sequestration and emission reduction in agricultural planting and food security, it was found that agricultural planting can achieve a win-win situation of carbon reduction and food production through technologies such as crop rotation and precision fertilization, and the two have stronger synergy under technological innovation and policy guidance. However, existing research has significant shortcomings: One is that the comprehensive evaluation index system for collaborative development has not yet been established; Secondly, there is insufficient research on the spatiotemporal pattern evolution and driving factors of collaborative development; Thirdly, conflicts between different policy departments have led to contradictions between carbon sequestration and emission reduction in agricultural planting and food security. Therefore, future research needs to focus on the following four aspects: The first is to construct a more reasonable and scientific coupling coordination model to overcome the volatility and incomparability of traditional model results; The second is to use exploratory data analysis tools and Kernel density estimation to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and evolutionary characteristics of their collaborative development; The third is to conduct research on the mechanisms and pathways for the coordinated development of carbon sequestration, emission reduction, and food security in agricultural planting under different scenarios; The fourth is to introduce modern information technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence to establish a unified monitoring network and data sharing platform, ultimately providing scientific basis for achieving China's agricultural “dual carbon” goals and ensuring national food security and harmonious progress.

     

/

返回文章
返回