Abstract: Gansu Province, located in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern China, has long faced multiple challenges, including water scarcity, increased soil erosion, and fragile ecological carrying capacity. Its complex and diverse geography further exacerbates the challenges of agricultural development. Promoting green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture and realizing a synergy between ecological environmental protection and high-quality agricultural development have become key paths for sustainable development in the region. Based on the connotation of agricultural green and low-carbon transformation, this study constructs an evaluation index system of agricultural green and low-carbon transformation levels in Gansu Province, and adopts the rank-and-ratio comprehensive evaluation method based on the CRITIC-entropy weight combination empowerment method, and the Hurst and Terre indices to measure and analyze the agricultural green and low-carbon transformation, spatial and temporal characteristics, trends and regional differences of agriculture in Gansu Province from 2008 to 2022. Based on this, the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method (fsQCA) was used to analyze the optimization path of the agricultural green low-carbon transition in Gansu Province. The results of the study show that: 1) during 2008–2022, the overall level of agricultural green and low-carbon transformation in Gansu Province showed a slow growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of 0.19%, and significant regional differences (Hexi>Central Gansu>Southeastern Gansu), with a spatial distribution characteristic of “high in the west and low in the east.” Among them, the contribution of agricultural modernization and the resource conservation dimension were relatively prominent, whereas the greening and low-carbon dimensions were relatively weak and slow to improve, becoming a key bottleneck restricting the overall transformation depth. 2) The overall green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture in Gansu Province exhibited an upward trend; however, inter-regional differences were evident. The Hexi and Central Gansu regions showed an upward trend, whereas the Southeastern Gansu Region showed a downward trend. 3) The overall difference in the level of agricultural green low-carbon transformation in Gansu Province was minimal, and the inter-area difference was significantly higher than the intra-area difference, with the most prominent difference in the Central Gansu Region, and a relative balance in Hexi Region. 4) Three types of high agricultural green low-carbon transition level grouping paths exist: technological environmental support, organizational environmentally driven, and coordination and integrationally driven types. Environmental factors are core conditions in all paths.