基于面板数据的农业“三化”耦合协调时空演化及驱动因素研究

Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of the coupling coordination of agricultural DMG based on panel data

  • 摘要: 在中国式现代化战略框架下, 农业数字化是驱动农业现代化进程的核心引擎与构建新型农业生产体系的关键技术支撑, 农业绿色化则作为贯穿发展的价值主线, 通过系统性重构生态友好型生产方式, 成为实现农业高质量发展、全面推进乡村振兴和加快农业强国建设的战略性支点。本研究基于2012—2022年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据, 从农业数字化、现代化、绿色化3个维度构建指标体系, 实证检验农业数字化、现代化、绿色化(“三化”)系统耦合协调的时空演化及驱动因素。结果表明: 1) 农业“三化”系统存在显著协同效应, 2022年整体达中度协调水平; 2)区域间, 农业“三化”系统耦合协调度呈东部和中部大于西部和东北的空间格局, 但区域间差异逐步收敛; 3)农业现代化是核心驱动力, 通过提升生产效率和生态友好性推动“三化”协同; 4)各省(自治区、直辖市)农业“三化”系统耦合协调发展潜力差异明显但趋向均衡。基于此, 提出推进数字基建融合与构建数字农业人才体系、完善现代农业驱动的区域协同机制、以农业技术投入驱动现代化转型、实施精准施策推动发展潜力释放等建议, 以促进农业绿色可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Under the strategic framework of the Chinese path to modernization, agricultural digitalization serves as the key technical support for building a new agricultural production system, while agricultural greening represents the value-oriented thread that guides development. The systematic reconstruction of eco-friendly production modes has become a strategic fulcrum for comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and accelerating the construction of a powerful agricultural country. This study utilized panel data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2012 to 2022 and constructed an indicator system based on three dimensions: agricultural digitalization, modernization, and greening (DMG). It empirically tested the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of the coupling coordination of agricultural DMG. The results indicated that: 1) A significant synergistic effect existed among the DMG systems of agriculture, and the overall coordination reached a moderate level by 2022. 2) Among different regions, the coordination level of DMG exhibited a spatial pattern, with the eastern and central regions outperforming the western and northeastern regions, and the differences between regions gradually converging. 3) Agricultural modernization was the core driving force, promoting the synergy of DMG by improving production efficiency and eco-friendly practices. 4) The potential for coupling and coordinated development varied significantly among provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) but showed a tendency toward balance. Based on these findings, the study proposes suggestions of promoting the integration of digital infrastructure and the construction of a digital agricultural talent system, improving regional coordination mechanisms led by modern agriculture, driving modernization transformation with agricultural technology investment, and implementing precise policies to unleash development potential and promote the green and sustainable development of agriculture.

     

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