中国粮食主产区粮食安全韧性“三链”协同时空分异及其驱动因素

Spatiotemporal differentiation and driving factors of the synergy of “three-chain” resilience of food security in China’s major grain-producing areas

  • 摘要: 粮食主产区作为国家粮食安全战略核心保障区, 探讨其粮食安全韧性时空分异与驱动因素, 对于实现农业强国目标意义深远。本文以粮食主产区为研究区, 构建粮食安全韧性评价指标体系, 采用耦合协调模型与核密度估计探究粮食主产区粮食安全韧性时空演变特征, 并通过随机森林模型和地理探测器揭示粮食安全韧性驱动因素。结果表明: 1) 2000—2020年, 粮食主产区粮食安全产业链韧性指数、供应链韧性指数和价值链韧性指数分别提高了0.180、0.253和0.141。 江苏省产业链、供应链和价值链韧性指数增幅均最高, 分别为0.394、0.449和0.459。2) 2000—2020年, 粮食主产区粮食安全韧性耦合协调度由0.371上升至0.571, 由轻度失调转为勉强协调; 山东省和江苏省的耦合协调度相对较高, 达到中级协调。3)研究期前期各省(自治区)间粮食安全韧性“三链”协同水平差异较大, 后期差异逐步缩小, 整体趋于均衡, 但尚未形成普遍性集中趋势。4)粮食安全韧性产业链、供应链和价值链协同的关键影响因素为农林牧渔业总产值和一般公共预算收入, 且同时受多因素交互作用影响。研究结果可以为促进粮食主产区粮食安全韧性提升提供决策参考。

     

    Abstract: As the core guarantee regions of China’s national food security strategy, the major grain-producing areas play a crucial role in ensuring national food security resilience. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of food security resilience in these regions is vital for achieving the goals of building a strong agricultural sector and promoting sustainable rural development. Based on statistical data from China’s major grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2020, we constructed a food security resilience evaluation index system that encompasses the resilience of the industry, supply, and value chains, grounded in resistance, adaptability, and transformation capacity. Specifically, the entropy method was employed to quantify the resilience levels of the industrial, supply, and value chains (three-chain) in food security, whereas a coupling coordination model was applied to measure their synergy. Kernel density estimation was used to examine the absolute differences and variation characteristics. Furthermore, the contributions of the subsystem indicators were ranked using the random forest algorithm, identifying nine key factors with significant importance, and the geographical detector method was employed to interpret their driving effects on food security resilience. From 2000 to 2020, the resilience levels of the grain industrial, supply, and value chains in the major grain-producing areas increased by 0.180, 0.253, and 0.141, respectively. Jiangsu Province showed the highest growth rate for three chains resilience. During the same period, the degree of coupled coordination of food security resilience increased from 0.371 to 0.571, indicating a shift from mild imbalance to fragile coordination. Shandong and Jiangsu Provinces exhibited relatively high coupling coordination, reaching intermediate coordination levels, whereas Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Liaoning remained near imbalances. The overall coordination level of the three chains in food security resilience continuously improved, with substantial inter-provincial disparities in the early study period, gradually narrowing over time and trending toward equilibrium, but without a universal convergence trend. Among the subsystems, the value chain resilience factors had a greater driving effect on the coordination of the three chains than the supply and industrial chain resilience factors. At the individual factor level, the gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as the general public budget revenue, were identified as the key influencing factors for the coordination of the three chains, which were also affected by multi-factor interactions. These findings provide decision-making references for enhancing food security resilience in major grain-producing areas and contribute to establishing a new food security framework characterized by deep coordination among the “three-chain” in China’s major grain-producing areas.

     

/

返回文章
返回