基于有效积温的河北省双季青贮玉米气候适宜性区划

Climate suitability zoning of double-cropping silage maize in Hebei Province based on effective accumulated temperature

  • 摘要: 青贮玉米具有较高的饲用价值, 对我国“粮改饲”种植结构调整和畜牧养殖业发展具有重要意义, 但是在双季种植过程中, 不同熟性组配青贮玉米的可种植区域尚不明确。为合理规划河北省不同熟性组配双季青贮玉米的可种植区域, 2024年采用大田试验的方法对10个品种玉米进行双季青贮种植, 根据每个品种生育期内活动积温将其划分为早熟、中熟、晚熟3个等级, 并对不同品种玉米进行熟性组配, 共6种组配方式, 分别为: 早熟-早熟、早熟-中熟、早熟-晚熟、中熟-中熟、中熟-晚熟、晚熟-晚熟。利用河北省123个县内气象站点45年(1976—2020年)的气象统计资料, 计算得到各县每年有效积温, 结合ArcGIS的空间分析功能, 使用反距离权重法, 分析河北省不同熟性组配双季青贮玉米的可种植区域。研究结果表明, 河北省双季青贮玉米可种植区域主要分布在平原地区以及西部山区, 且有效积温(每15年平均值)逐渐增加, 1976—2020年, 气候变暖的趋势使可种植双季青贮玉米的区域逐渐向北向东扩展, 6种熟性组配在河北省都有可种植的区域。综合来看, 持续的全球变暖可能会进一步增加双季青贮玉米的热量资源, 扩大不同熟性组配的适宜种植面积, 进而提高河北省农业系统的牧草年生产能力。该研究通过熟性组配优化设计为河北省双季青贮玉米种植规划奠定了理论基础。

     

    Abstract: Silage maize (Zea mays) has become a crucial dual-purpose grain–forage crop in Chinese agriculture. As one of the most widely used forage crops, its cultivation potential is significantly affected by effective accumulated temperature. Although many studies have been conducted to improve the yield and nutritional quality of silage maize, research on appropriate planting systems for double-crop silage maize in different regions remains relatively limited. To rationally plan planting regimes for double-crop silage maize under the diverse climatic conditions of Hebei Province, this study conducted a field experiment in 2024 at the Nanpi Ecological Agriculture Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences (38.04°N, 116.40°E) in Cangzhou City — a typical semiarid agricultural ecosystem in the North China Plain. The experimental materials included ten maize varieties suitable for both grain and forage use, with growth periods that meet the requirements for two cropping cycles per year: ‘Beinong 368’ ‘Boke 1066’ ‘Dongdan 1775’ ‘Ganyu 331’ ‘Huayu 698’ ‘Jinling 327’ ‘Jiyuan 888’ ‘Liangyu 99’ ‘Weike 966’, and ‘Zhengdan 958’. Throughout the growing season, the phenological stages of each variety were recorded — including emergence, jointing, silking, blister, milk, and early dough stages — and the effective accumulated temperature (the sum of daily average temperatures above 10 ℃ during the growth period) was calculated for each variety in both growing seasons. Based on the average effective accumulated temperature (A) across the two seasons, the tested varieties were divided into three maturity groups: early maturing (A < 1 200 ℃·d), medium maturing (1 200 ≤ A < 1 250 ℃·d), and late maturing (A ≥ 1 250 ℃·d), resulting in six possible double-crop combinations: early-early, early-medium, early-late, medium-medium, medium-late, and late-late maturing. To scale these experimental findings spatiotemporally, the study integrated meteorological data from 123 county-level stations in Hebei Province over 45 years (1976–2020). A strict data quality control protocol was implemented, and the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation method was used to estimate missing values, ensuring complete spatial coverage and maintaining the integrity of thermal regime analysis. Results showed that the overall interannual variation rate of effective accumulated temperature ≥ 0 ℃ in Hebei Province was 7.37 ℃·d·a−1, indicating a steadily increasing trend. Areas with relatively low effective accumulated temperature (≤ 1 100 ℃·d) were concentrated in Zhangjiakou and Chengde from 1976 to 2020, with only minor changes in range. Conversely, areas with higher values (≥ 2 200 ℃·d) expanded significantly. By 2020, areas suitable for double-cropping silage maize had shifted northward in response to climate warming, and viable planting zones were identified for all six maturity combinations. This study demonstrates that climate warming has significantly influenced the planting potential of double-crop silage maize in Hebei Province. In conclusion, continued global climate warming is likely to increase effective accumulated temperature further, thereby enhancing heat resource availability and expanding the feasible areas for various maturity combinations. The methodological framework established here — integrating precise field experimentation with comprehensive climate analysis — offers a model for evaluating planting system adaptation to climate change in other temperate regions. Future research should incorporate additional environmental and economic variables to develop robust decision-support tools for farmers and policymakers facing climate-induced agricultural transitions.

     

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