乡村振兴背景下广东省农村碳中和路径研究

Pathways to rural carbon neutrality in Guangdong province: A rural revitalization perspective

  • 摘要: “双碳”目标的提出为乡村振兴战略注入了绿色新动力,推动农业农村领域实现碳中和是落实乡村振兴战略的重要措施。为了探索农村推进乡村振兴与碳中和目标的融合路径,为广东省农村地区实现碳中和提供科学依据和政策建议,本文基于排放因子法核算了2015年至2022年广东省农村温室气体排放量,对未来到2035年广东省农村温室气体排放趋势进行预测。结果显示,2022年广东省农村温室气体排放量约1亿tCO2当量,其中非二温室气体占比达到55%。通过优化能源结构、提升能源效率、强化非二减排等措施,广东省2035年农业温室气体排放有望较2022年降低80%,农业生物质高值化利用将促进经济增长约25%。研究表明,通过建立乡村振兴与碳中和目标有机融合的顶层设计机制,提高农村电气化水平、提升农村能源利用效率、推动农村光伏多场景发展、推进农林生物质高值化利用、控制农业甲烷和氧化亚氮排放,可在实现农村碳中和的同时助力乡村振兴。

     

    Abstract: The introduction of the "Dual Carbon" goals has injected a new impetus for green development into the Rural Revitalization Strategy. Achieving carbon neutrality in the agricultural and rural sectors is an important measure to implement the Rural Revitalization Strategy. To explore the integration pathways for rural revitalization and carbon neutrality goals and to provide scientific evidence and policy recommendations for achieving carbon neutrality in rural areas of Guangdong Province, this paper calculates the greenhouse gas emissions in rural Guangdong from 2015 to 2022 based on the emission factor method and forecasts the emission trends up to 2035. The results show that in 2022, the greenhouse gas emissions in rural Guangdong were approximately 100 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, with non-CO₂ greenhouse gases accounting for 55%. By optimizing the energy structure, enhancing energy efficiency, and strengthening non-CO₂ emission reductions, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Guangdong are expected to decrease by 80% by 2035 compared to 2022. The high-value utilization of agricultural biomass is projected to boost economic growth by about 25%. The study concludes that establishing a top-level design mechanism for the organic integration of rural revitalization and carbon neutrality goals, improving rural electrification levels, enhancing rural energy efficiency, promoting the multi-scenario development of rural photovoltaics, advancing the high-value utilization of agricultural and forestry biomass, and controlling agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions can achieve rural carbon neutrality while also facilitating rural revitalization.

     

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