综合作物生长模型与深度学习的黄淮海平原玉米单产遥感估算

Remote sensing estimation and mapping of maize yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain using integrated crop growth models and deep learning

  • 摘要: 中国是世界第二大玉米生产国, 对全球产量的贡献率达23%, 在稳定全球玉米供给方面发挥着至关重要的作用。玉米产量的准确估算对于保障粮食安全和制定粮食政策具有重要意义。本研究采用World Food Studies (WOFOST)模型和深度学习相结合的方法对玉米产量进行估算, 并生成了2014—2023年间黄淮海平原玉米单产估算数据集。利用WOFOST模型, 通过输入气象、土壤、作物和管理数据, 提供具有农学机理支撑的单产形成过程动态模拟数据集, 解决传统统计模型中样本稀缺的问题。在此基础上, 利用深度学习模型GRU捕捉时间序列数据中的非线性关系, 处理作物生长过程中各生育阶段的累积效应, 提高单产估算的精度。随后, 利用统计数据对初始结果进行校正, 使其更加符合实际情况。结果显示, 2014—2023年估产精度总体高于85%, 相关性r为0.47~0.76, RMSE为487~1 168 kg·hm−2, 在不依赖田间调查数据的情况下具有较好的性能, 这种方法可以为大区域玉米单产分布制图提供便利。将基于生长过程模拟的作物模型与深度学习相结合的方法解决了样本稀缺问题, 强化了农学知识在单产估算中的作用机制, 为农作物单产估算提供了新思路, 具备推广潜力。

     

    Abstract: China is the world’s second-largest corn producer, contributing 23% to global production and playing a vital role in stabilizing the global corn supply. Accurate estimation of corn yield is critical for ensuring food security and formulating agricultural policies. This study combines the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model with deep learning to estimate corn yield and has generated a dataset of corn yield per unit area in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2014 to 2023. Using the WOFOST model, which incorporates meteorological, soil, crop, and management data, the study provides a dynamic simulation dataset of yield formation processes backed by agronomic mechanisms, addressing the issue of sample scarcity in traditional statistical models. Building on this, the deep learning model GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) captures nonlinear relationships in time-series data and accounts for the cumulative effects of various growth stages during crop development, improving the accuracy of yield estimation. Subsequently, the initial results are corrected using statistical data to ensure closer alignment with actual conditions. Results demonstrate that the estimated accuracy from 2014 to 2023 exceeds 85% overall, with correlation coefficients (r) ranging from 0.47 to 0.76 and RMSE values ranging from 487 to 1 168 kg·hm−2. This method performs well even without relying on field survey data, facilitating large-scale mapping of corn yield distribution. By integrating crop models based on growth process simulation with deep learning, the method resolves the issue of sample scarcity, strengthens the role of agronomic knowledge in yield estimation, and provides new insights for crop yield estimation, with the potential to be applied to other crops.

     

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