蒙古国地表水体长期变化趋势及影响

Long-term changes of water bodies and their relevant impacts in Mongolia

  • 摘要: 在气候变化和人类活动影响下,蒙古国地表水体的时空变化直接影响着该国农牧业发展及我国北方生态安全。为深入探讨蒙古国地区水体变化时空规律,本文基于GEE平台和Landsat遥感数据,提取建立了1990~2023年间的蒙古国地表水体数据集,在验证新数据集可靠性的基础上,分析了近30多年来各类水体的变化趋势及成因。结果表明,从时间序列上看,水体变化呈先减少后增加的趋势,至研究期末水体数量减少了69.2千个,面积萎缩了367.6 km²;不同大小水体类型间的变化也存在显著差异,其中小型水体(1~10 km2)和历史上缺乏关注的微型水体(<1 km2)变化最为剧烈,中大型水体则多以在不同类型水体之间相互转换为主;从空间分布来看,与我国接壤的干旱沙漠及戈壁区如:东南戈壁流域、杭爱山脉谷地流域水体变化更加剧烈,对环境变化较为敏感;成因分析表明:气候因素特别是降雨和标准化降水指数(SPI)等对水体数量和面积变化影响显著,此外,水体变化与耕地面积和畜牧业规模之间存在正反馈关系,这与蒙古国游牧型畜牧业发展严重依赖小型及微小型水源有关。

     

    Abstract: Under the influences of climate change and human activities, the temporal and spatial variations of surface water bodies in Mongolia directly impact the country's agricultural and pastoral development, as well as the ecological security of northern China. To explore the temporal and spatial patterns of water body changes in Mongolia, this study, based on the GEE platform and Landsat remote sensing data, extracted and established a dataset of surface water bodies in Mongolia from 1990 to 2023. After validating the reliability of the new dataset, the study analyzed the trends and causes of changes in various water bodies over the past 30 years. The results indicate that, in terms of the time series, water body changes exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by an increase. By the end of the study period, the number of water bodies had decreased by 69, 200, and the total area had shrunk by 367.6 km². Significant differences were observed in the changes among water bodies of different sizes, with small water bodies (1–10 km²) and micro water bodies (<1 km²), which historically received less attention, experiencing the most dramatic changes. Medium and large water bodies mostly underwent transformations between different types of water bodies. Spatially, areas such as the Southeast Gobi Basin and the Hangay Uul Basin, bordering China, exhibited more intense water body changes and were more sensitive to environmental changes. The causality analysis revealed that climate factors, particularly rainfall and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), had a significant impact on changes in the number and area of water bodies. Furthermore, a positive feedback relationship was found between water body changes and cultivated land area and livestock scale. This is closely related to Mongolia’s dependence on small and micro water sources for its nomadic pastoralism.

     

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