基于人类活动因子和随机森林模型改进土壤有机碳密度预测及制图

Improvement of soil organic carbon density prediction and mapping based on human activity factors and random forest model

  • 摘要: 土壤有机碳(SOC)密度是影响粮食安全和农业决策的重要土壤属性。以往SOC密度预测研究多是基于自然环境变量开展。然而,在人类活动频繁地区,人为变量也会在一定程度上影响土壤性质。本研究基于随机森林(RF)方法,选择环境变量及人口密度、建筑物体量、道路网密度和人类热排放4个人类活动变量,探讨人类活动对黄淮海平原耕地SOC密度预测的重要性。结果表明,环境协变量仅能解释耕地SOC密度变化的35%。而同时包含人类活动变量和环境协变量的模型在R2和LCCC方面的预测精度分别提高了37.14%、19.67%,在MAE、RMSE方面分别降低8.47%、9.88%,显示出更好的模型性能和预测结果。这说明黄淮海平原地区人类活动变量对SOC密度的变化具有重要影响。在相对重要性排序中,白天最高地表温度是最重要的预测因子,其次是白天地表温度的标准差,在预测模型中排名第2。在SOC密度预测的4个人类活动变量中,人类热排放是最重要的预测变量,重要性占比8.25%,其次是人口密度、建筑物体量和道路网密度。

     

    Abstract: Soil organic carbon (SOC) density is an important soil attribute that affects food security and agricultural decision-making. Previous SOC density prediction research has mostly been based on natural environmental variables. However, in areas with frequent human activities, anthropogenic variables can also affect soil properties to some extent. This study was conducted based on random forest (RF) selection of environmental variables and four human activity variables, including population density, built-up volume, road density, and hourly anthropogenic heat flux, to explore the importance of human activities in predicting SOC density in cultivated land in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(HHH plain). The results indicate that environmental covariates can only explain 35% of the changes in SOC density in cultivated land. In contrast, the model with human activity and environmental variables enhanced the prediction accuracy. The R2 and LCCC rose by 37.14% and 19.67%, respectively, while the MAE and RMSE decreased by 8.47% and 9.88%, respectively, suggesting better performance and prediction. This indicates that human activity variables have a significant impact on the changes in SOC density in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain region. In the relative importance ranking, the highest daytime land surface temperature is the most important predictor, followed by the standard deviation of daytime land surface temperature, ranking second in the prediction model. Among the four human activity variables for SOC density prediction, hourly anthropogenic heat flux are the most important predictor variable, accounting for 8.25% of the importance, followed by population density, built-up volume, and road density.

     

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