气候变化情景下农业绿色生产转型路径研究

Research on the pathways for agricultural green production transformation under climate change scenarios

  • 摘要: 气候变化正深度重构全球农业生产体系, 推动农业向绿色低碳转型已成为国际共识。本文在解析农业绿色生产转型内涵特征与理论逻辑的基础上, 系统探讨了其在气候变化情景下的发展现状、转型困境与优化路径。研究表明, 农业绿色生产转型以技术赋能与政策驱动为双引擎, 推动农业生产向低碳化、高效化与可持续化方向演进, 呈现出经济-生态效益协同、绿色技术研发与推广耦合、区域差异化路径与“双碳”目标约束并存等典型特征。其内在逻辑立足于社会-生态系统韧性理论与生态现代化理论, 旨在实现资源高效利用、生态保护与效益提升的多元平衡, 依靠技术创新、政策调控与市场响应的协同作用推进农业绿色生产转型。其转型困境具体表现为农业投入品增加导致面源污染加剧、极端天气频发迫使农业生产结构亟待调整、农业绿色生产技术创新能力不足等。为应对这些挑战, 本文提出应通过优化种植制度与区域布局、加强绿色农业技术创新与应用、完善气候适应性基础设施建设等路径, 提升农业生产系统的韧性与适应能力, 确保粮食安全, 推动农业绿色生产转型。

     

    Abstract: Climate change has had a profound impact on agricultural production system, and promoting the transformation of agriculture toward green, low-carbon, and sustainable development has become a global consensus. This study analyzes the basic connotations, key characteristics, and internal logic of agricultural green production transformation under various climate change scenarios. From a conceptual perspective, agricultural green production transformation refers to the process of promoting agricultural production modes in low-carbon, high-efficient, and sustainable directions through technological innovation, policy support, and other measures. From the perspective of characteristics, it is manifested as the synergistic drive of economic and social benefits, the complementarity of scientific innovation and green technology promotion, and the joint guidance of regional differentiation and the “dual carbon” goals. From the perspective of internal logic, in the context of climate change, agricultural green production transformation is grounded in resilience theory, oriented toward efficient resource utilization, ecological environment conservation, and multidimensional enhancement of agricultural productivity, and is driven by the synergy of technological innovation, policy guidance, and market demand. Based on a review of domestic and international literature, this study further examines the development status and challenges of agricultural green production transformation under climate change scenarios and proposes corresponding optimization strategies. This study shows that climate change adversely affects agricultural production structure and crop growth cycles by aggravating agricultural non-point source pollution, lowering resource-use efficiency, and hindering the promotion and application of green technologies. Moreover, deficiencies remain in the construction of agricultural infrastructure, production mode adjustments, and policy support systems. To address these issues, this study proposes optimizing planting systems and crop distribution, accelerating the adoption of green agricultural technologies, and strengthening the construction of agricultural infrastructure to enhance the resilience and adaptability of production systems, ensure food security, and advance the green transformation of agriculture. Furthermore, agricultural green transformation is not only an inherent requirement for achieving sustainable development but also an important pathway to implementing the concept of “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets” and realizing the “dual carbon” goals. Constructing an agricultural production system guided by resource conservation, environmental friendliness, and ecological priority not only mitigates climate risks and maintains ecological security but also promotes the deep integration of agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, thereby providing valuable experience and references for the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture in China.

     

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