气候变化情景下农业绿色生产转型路径研究

Research on the pathways for agricultural green production transformation under climate change scenarios

  • 摘要: 气候变化正在深度重构全球农业生产体系, 推动农业向绿色低碳转型已成为国际共识。本文解析了气候变化情景下农业绿色生产转型的基本含义(技术赋能与政策驱动推进农业生产向低碳、高效、可持续三位一体转型)、基本特征(经济-生态效益协同、绿色技术研发-推广耦合、区域差异化与“双碳”目标约束并存)和内在逻辑(以系统韧性为基础, 资源高效-生态保护-效益提升三维导向, 技术-政策-市场三重动力协同)。在梳理国内外文献基础上, 探讨了其在气候变化情景下的发展现状和面临的困境, 并提出了相应的优化策略。研究表明, 气候变化对农业生产结构、农作物生长周期等产生部分不利影响, 如进一步加剧了农业面源污染、资源利用效率低、绿色技术推广与应用不足等问题。此外, 农业基础设施建设、生产方式调整及政策支撑体系仍存在短板。据此提出调整农业种植制度与作物布局、推广绿色农业技术、加强农业基础设施建设等路径, 以提升农业生产系统的韧性与适应能力, 确保粮食安全, 推动农业绿色生产转型。

     

    Abstract: Climate change has exerted a profound impact on the agricultural production system, and promoting the transformation of agriculture toward green, low-carbon, and sustainable development has become a global consensus. This paper analyzes the basic connotation, key characteristics, and internal logic of agricultural green production transformation under climate change scenarios. From the perspective of connotation, agricultural green production transformation refers to the process of promoting agricultural production modes toward low-carbon, efficient, and sustainable directions through technological innovation, policy support, and other measures. From the perspective of characteristics, it is manifested as the synergistic drive of economic and social benefits, the complementarity of scientific innovation and green technology promotion, and the joint guidance of regional differentiation and the “dual carbon” goals. From the perspective of internal logic, under the background of climate change, the transformation of agricultural green production is grounded in resilience theory, oriented toward efficient resource utilization, ecological environment conservation, and the multidimensional enhancement of agricultural production efficiency, and driven by the synergy of technological innovation, policy guidance, and market demand. Based on a review of domestic and international literature, this paper further examines the development status and challenges of agricultural green production transformation under climate change scenarios, and proposes corresponding optimization strategies. The study shows that climate change has adverse impacts on agricultural production structure and crop growth cycles, such as aggravating agricultural non-point source pollution, lowering resource use efficiency, and hindering the promotion and application of green technologies. Moreover, deficiencies remain in agricultural infrastructure construction, production mode adjustment, and policy support systems. To address these issues, this paper proposes optimizing planting systems and crop distribution, accelerating the promotion of green agricultural technologies, and strengthening the construction of agricultural infrastructure, so as to enhance the resilience and adaptability of agricultural production systems, ensure food security, and advance the green transformation of agriculture. Furthermore, agricultural green transformation is not only an inherent requirement for achieving sustainable development, but also an important pathway to implementing the concept of “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets” and realizing the “dual carbon ” goals. By constructing an agricultural production system guided by resource conservation, environmental friendliness, and ecological priority, it can not only mitigate climate risks and maintain ecological security, but also promote the deep integration of agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, thereby providing valuable experience and references for the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture in China and beyond.

     

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