基于物候期气候因素的茶叶产量模型构建与种植管理策略研究——以福建福鼎市为例

Research on the Construction of Tea Yield Model and Planting Management Strategies Based on Climatic Factors in Phenological Periods:A Case Study of Fuding City,Fujian Province

  • 摘要: 本文聚焦于茶叶产量与符合茶树生命节律的物候期气候因素之间的复杂关系, 采用茶树物候期的气象指标作为因子, 探索建立茶叶产量模型, 并基于模型主要气候因素制定切实可行的茶树种植管理策略。基于福鼎市1990—2022年的气象观测资料和茶叶产量资料, 采用线性趋势法研究气候变化趋势, 运用多元线性回归法、主成分分析法及神经网络法 3 种方法构建福鼎市茶叶产量模型。研究结果表明: 1990—2022 年福鼎市年平均温度以0.436 ℃/10a 的速率显著提升, 年日照时数与年降水量在不规律波动中分别以4.078 h/10a和31.105 mm/10a 的速率微量增加, 气候变化影响茶叶产量的稳定性;由9个茶树物候期筛选出14个关键气象因子拟合的神经网络模型精度为 93.13%, 标准差为 5.5957, 为最优产量模型, 模型中全物候期降水日数、春茶采摘期平均气压、 第2次生长期 ≥10 ℃ 积温3个气象因子对福鼎市茶叶产量影响权重较大;最后基于最优产量模型的主要茶树物候期气候因素进行分析探讨, 提出制定精准的茶园灌溉与排水管理方案、建立茶区气象监测和预警系统、制定科学合理的茶园选址与布局规划、综合运用应对气候变化的长期管理策略等适用于福鼎市茶树种植策略调整建议。

     

    Abstract: This paper focuses on the complex relationship between tea yield and the climatic factors in phenological periods that conform to the life rhythm of tea plants. By using meteorological indicators during the phenological stages of tea plants as factors to explore and establish a tea yield model, and management strategies are developed based on the main climate factors of the model. Based on the meteorological observation data and tea yield data of Fuding City from 1990 to 2022, the linear trend method was used to study the trend of climate change, and three methods, including multiple linear regression method, principal component analysis and neural network analysis, were used to construct the tea yield model for Fuding City. The research results show that from 1990 to 2022, the annual average temperature in Fuding City increased significantly at a rate of 0.436 °C/10a. The annual sunshine hours and annual precipitation increased slightly at rates of 4.078 h/10a and 31.105 mm/10a respectively during irregular fluctuations. Climate change affects the stability of tea yield.The neural network model fitted with 14 key meteorological factors screened from 9 phenological periods of tea plants has an accuracy of 93.13% and a standard deviation of 5.5957, making it the optimal yield model. Among the models, three meteorological factors—the number of precipitation days in the full phenological period, the average air pressure during the spring tea picking period, and the accumulated temperature ≥ 10 °C in the second growth period, have relatively large weights in influencing the tea yield in Fuding City. Finally, based on the analysis and discussion of the climatic factors of the main phenological periods of teaplants in the optimal model, some suggestions for adjusting the tea tree planting strategies suitable for Fuding City are put forward. These suggestions include formulating precise tea garden irrigation and drainage management plans, establishing a meteorological monitoring and early warning system in tea-growing areas, formulating scientific and reasonable tea garden site selection and layout plans, and comprehensively applying long-term management strategies to cope with climate change.

     

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