Abstract: This study focuses on the complex relationship between tea yield and the phenological climatic factors that conform to the growth rhythm of tea trees. Using climatic indicators of the phenological periods of tea trees as factors, this study explores the establishment of a tea yield model and formulates tea planting and management strategies adapted to the regional climate based on the primary climatic factors identified by the model. Based on the meteorological observation data and tea yield data of Fuding City from 1990 to 2022, the linear trend method was adopted to study the climate change trends. Three methods, namely, multiple linear regression, principal component regression, and neural networks, were used to construct the tea yield model for Fuding City. The research results showed that from 1990 to 2022, the annual average temperature in Fuding City increased significantly by 0.436 ℃∙(10a)⁻¹, and annual sunshine hours and precipitation increased by 4.078 h∙(10a)⁻¹ and 31.105 mm∙(10a)⁻¹, respectively, with irregular fluctuations. Climate change affected tea yield stability. Among the 168 phenological elements formed by the climatic indicators of different tea plant phenological periods, 14 climatic factors were identified. The evaluation results of the neural network yield model constructed based on these key factors showed that the root mean square error (RMSE) was 7.5956, the normalized RMSE (NRMSE) was 0.0807, the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.9351, and the average fitting accuracy rate (P) was 93.13%, making it the optimal yield model. Finally, focusing on the three high-importance factors in the optimal model, including the number of precipitation days during the full phenological period, the average air pressure during the spring tea picking season, and the accumulated temperature ≥ 10 °C during the second growth period, as well as the five moderate-importance factors, including evaporation during the bud germination period, evaporation during the dormancy period, average wind speed during the dormancy period, average wind speed during the second growth period, and average daily minimum temperature during the second growth period, combined with the local climate warming trend, an analysis and discussion were conducted. Tea planting strategies adapted to the climatic characteristics of Fuding City have been proposed, such as optimizing water resources, conserving soil moisture, using ventilation to reduce humidity, preventing meteorological disasters, and dispersal of climate risks.