农地流转对农业面源污染的影响及其空间溢出效应
Influence of agricultural land transfer on agricultural non-point source pollution and its spatial spillover effect*
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摘要: 农业面源污染是中国农业重要的环境问题, 现有研究较少分析农地流转这一重要农业改革对其作用, 制约了农业面源污染治理和农地流转环境效益识别。为此, 基于现有成果, 本研究理论分析了农地流转对农业面源污染的影响, 并讨论其空间溢出效应, 而后利用2005—2021年中国30省(自治区、直辖市, 因农业发展差异问题未包括香港、澳门和台湾与西藏)面板数据, 综合双固定效应回归模型、中介效应模型、空间计量模型等就农地流转对农业面源污染的影响进行实证分析。结果表明: 1)农地流转对农业面源污染的影响在5%的统计水平显著为负, 其影响系数为−0.21; 这一结果在经过稳健性检验和处置内生性后依然成立。2)农地流转通过扩大农业经营规模和提升粮食种植比例而减少农业面源污染; 农地流转对农业经营规模的影响系数为0.26, 农业经营规模对农业面源污染的影响系数为−0.23; 农地流转对粮食种植比例的影响系数为0.29, 粮食种植比例对农业面源污染的影响系数为−0.28。3)农地流转对农业面源污染的负向影响存在空间溢出效应, 农地流转不仅减少本地区农业面源污染, 还能减少周边地区农业面源污染。最后, 根据分析结果, 建议加快推进农地流转, 并促进农业适度规模经营和粮食种植绿色化, 同时促进地区协同治污。Abstract: Agricultural non-point source pollution (ANNSP) is an important environmental problem in China’s agriculture and an important obstacle to its sustainable development. Existing studies rarely analyze the effect of agricultural land transfer, an important agricultural reform, on the control of ANPSP, and the identification of the environmental benefits of agricultural land transfer. Therefore, based on the existing results, this study theoretically analyzed the impact of agricultural land transfer on the ANNSP and discussed its spatial spillover effect. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China (due to differences in agricultural development, HongKong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang was not included) from 2005 to 2021, the study analyzed the effects of agricultural land transfer on the ANNSP by combining the dual fixed effect regression, intermediate effect, and spatial econometric models. The results showed that agricultural land transfer has a significant negative impact on ANPSP at the 5% level with an influence coefficient of −0.21. This result was still valid after the robustness test and endogeneity disposal. Agricultural land transfer reduced ANPSP by expanding the scale of agricultural operations and increasing the proportion of grain planting. The influence coefficient of agricultural land transfer on agricultural operation scale was 0.26, and the influence coefficient of agricultural operation scale on ANPSP was −0.23. The influence coefficient of farmland transfer on the grain planting ratio was 0.29, and the influence of the grain planting ratio on the ANPSP was −0.28. The negative impact of agricultural land transfer on ANPSP has a significant spatial spillover effect. Agricultural land transfer can not only reduce ANPSP in the region but also the surrounding areas. The results suggest that all regions should actively promote the transfer of agricultural land, promote the moderate-scale management of agriculture and the greening of grain planting, and promote regional cooperation in pollution control to enhance the sustainable development of agriculture.
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