气候变化下大豆生产的响应与适应研究进展

Research progress on response and adaptation of soybean production to climate change

  • 摘要: 以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对全球范围内的大豆生产造成了重要影响。本文基于国内外相关文献, 归纳了目前应用于评估气候变化对大豆生产影响研究的主要方法, 综述了大豆物候与产量对气候变化的响应与适应, 得出以下主要结论1)气候变化对大豆生产影响的研究方法主要包括田间试验观测、统计分析方法与作物模型模拟。其中, 田间试验观测方法最为准确, 但鉴于试验设计的局限性, 难于有效揭示不同气候变化或不同气候因子综合作用对大豆生产的影响; 一定程度上, 统计方法能够保障结果的可靠性与客观性, 但该方法对用于统计分析的观测数据的数量和质量有较高要求; 作物机理模型模拟方法虽然机理性强, 外推效果好, 但应用前需要对模型进行参数校正和评价。2)由于气候变化的区域差异性, 全球范围内大豆物候和产量对气候变化的响应程度具有显著的空间异质性。总体而言, 温度每升高1 ℃, 大豆全生育期将缩短5.9 d, 产量将下降6.85%; 降水量每降低10 mm, 大豆产量将减少2.13%; 然而, CO2浓度每升高10 μmol∙mol−1 产量将增加0.52%。3)为有效应对气候变化, 品种更新、播期调整, 以及田间管理措施改善等措施可以提高大豆产量潜力, 减缓气候变化的负面影响。

     

    Abstract: Climate change characterized by climate warming has had an important impact on soybean production around the world. Based on a comprehensive review of relevant domestic and international literature, this paper systematically summarizes the current methods applied to the study of climate change and soybean production, illustrates the response of soybean phenology and yield to climate change, and proposes adaptive management suggestions. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The research methods of the impact of climate change on soybean production mainly include field experiment observation, statistical analysis and crop model simulation. The observation method of field experiment is the most intuitive, the statistical analysis method can guarantee the reliability and objectivity of the results, and the model simulation method has strong mechanical rationality and good extrapolation effect. Currently, AI technologies such as machine learning, deep learning and reinforcement learning can be utilized to enhance the accuracy of model simulation. In future research, multiple research methods can be combined to reduce the error of a single method and increase the accuracy of the research on the response and adaptation of soybean production under climate change. 2) The impact of climate change on soybean production mainly stems from the fluctuations and changes in key climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, radiation and CO2 concentration. These factors directly affect the entire growth process of soybeans, not only causing changes in the phenological period and yield, but also influencing the quality. At present, the research on the impact of climate change on soybean production mainly focuses on two aspects: changes in the growth period and fluctuations in yield. Due to the regional differences in climate change, the response degree of soybean phenology and yield to climate change worldwide shows significant spatial heterogeneity. Overall, for every 1 ℃ increase in temperature, the entire growth period of soybeans will be shortened by 5.9 days and the yield will decrease by 6.85%. Both precipitation and sunshine duration can shift the phenological period of soybeans. Meanwhile, for every 10 mm decrease in precipitation, the soybean yield will decrease by 2.13%. However, with global warming, the concentration of CO2 keeps rising. The fertilization effect of CO2 can to some extent offset the negative impact of climate change on soybean yield. Specifically, for every 10 μmol∙mol−1 increase in CO2 concentration, the yield will increase by 0.52%. 3) In terms of adjustment management measures, practices such as variety replacement, sowing date adjustment and technology upgrading should be taken to improve soybean yield potential and make up for the negative impact of climate change. In addition, policy subsidies, agricultural insurance, the application of Internet of Things and artificial intelligence technologies, etc. are also important measures to make up for the damage caused by climate change to soybean production.

     

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