气候变化下大豆生产的响应与适应研究进展*

Research progress on response and adaptation of global soybean production to climate change*

  • 摘要: 以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对全球范围内的大豆生产造成了重要影响。本文基于国内外相关文献,归纳了目前应用于评估气候变化对大豆生产影响研究的主要方法,综述了大豆物候与产量对气候变化的响应与适应,得出以下主要结论:(1)气候变化对大豆生产影响的研究方法主要包括田间试验观测、统计分析方法与作物模型模拟。其中,田间试验观测方法最为准确,但鉴于试验设计的局限性,难于有效揭示不同气候变化或不同气候因子综合作用对大豆生产的影响;一定程度上,统计方法能够保障结果的可靠性与客观性,但该方法对用于统计分析的观测数据的数量和质量有较高要求;作物机理模型模拟方法虽然机理性强,外推效果好,但应用前需要对模型进行参数校正和评价。(2)由于气候变化的区域差异性,全球范围内大豆物候和产量对气候变化的响应程度具有显著的空间异质性。总体而言,温度每升高1℃,大豆全生育期将缩短5.8d,产量将下降6.05%;降水量每降低10mm,大豆产量将减少3.66%;然而,CO2浓度每升高10ppm,产量将增加1.67%。(3)为有效应对气候变化,品种更新、播期调整,以及田间管理措施改善等措施可以提高大豆产量潜力,减缓气候变化的负面影响。

     

    Abstract: Climate change characterized by climate warming has had an important impact on soybean production around the world. Based on the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper summarizes the current methods applied to the study of climate change and soybean production, summarizes the response of soybean phenology and yield to climate change, and gives management suggestions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The research methods of the impact of climate change on soybean production mainly include field experiment observation, statistical analysis method and crop model simulation. The observation method of field experiment is the most intuitive, the statistical analysis method can guarantee the reliability and objectivity of the results, and the model simulation method has strong mechanical rationality and good extrapolation effect. (2) The response degree of soybean phenology and yield to climate change is spatially heterogeneous across the globe. In general, the whole growth period of soybean will be shortened by 5.8d and the yield will be decreased by 6.05% for every 1℃ increase in temperature. With an increase of 10mm of precipitation, soybean yield will increase by 3.66%. For every 10ppm increase in CO2 concentration, production will increase by 1.67%. (3) In terms of adjustment management measures, measures such as variety replacement, sowing date adjustment and technology upgrading should be taken to improve soybean yield potential and make up for the negative impact of climate change.

     

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