广东省1990-2020年耕地景观破碎度时空变化特征及其驱动机制

The Spatial-temporal Changes of Cropland Fragmentation and its Driving Mechanisms in Guangdong Province from 1990 to2020

  • 摘要: 在城镇化发展背景下, 耕地破碎化已成为制约农业现代化和规模化发展的关键问题之一, 严重威胁着我国粮食生产安全。基于景观格局指数等多种方法评估1990-2020年广东省耕地区县尺度的景观破碎度并分析其动态变换特征, 以最优参数地理探测器和方差膨胀系数检验法识别耕地景观破碎度的主要影响因子, 揭示其时空演变的驱动机制。结果表明: 1)1990-2020年广东省耕地破碎度总体呈"小幅下降—持续上升—迅速降低"的趋势, 破碎度高值集中于粤西, 低值集中于粤北, 随时间变化破碎度高值由粤西和粤东转移至珠三角;2)耕地破碎度演变主要受到农林牧渔总产值、城镇化率和GDP等社会经济因子的显著影响, 其中农林牧渔总产值是最主要的影响因素;3)驱动机制方面, 产业结构调整是导致耕地破碎化的关键动力, 耕地"非粮化"及土地利用类型转变进一步加剧了破碎化程度, 生态及耕地保护重视度的提高对耕地破碎化起到减缓作用。研究结果可为广东省高标准农田的建设及耕地利用效率的提高与管理措施的调整提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of urbanization development, cultivated land fragmentation has become one of the key problems restricting agricultural modernization and large-scale development, which seriously threatens the security of food production in China. Combined with landscape pattern index method, comprehensive index method, entropy method and Pearson correlation coefficient test, a comprehensive evaluation model of cultivated land fragmentation was constructed to evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land fragmentation at district and county scale in Guangdong Province. On this basis, combined with the land use transfer matrix, the characteristics of the dynamic transformation of cultivated land in Guangdong Province were analyzed, and the main influencing mechanism of the landscape fragmentation of cultivated land was identified by variance expansion coefficient test and geographic detector. The results showed as follows : 1) From the perspective of time, the change trend of cultivated land fragmentation in Guangdong Province was as follows: slight decrease - continuous increase - rapid decrease, and the time fluctuation of fragmentation was large. From the spatial perspective, the high value of cultivated land fragmentation index is concentrated in the west of Guangdong, the low value is concentrated in the north of Guangdong, the west of Guangdong has the largest change, the north of Guangdong has the smallest change, and the spatial distribution difference of fragmentation is large. With the change of time, the degree of fragmentation gradually showed a radial distribution from the Pearl River Delta to the periphery, and the high value of fragmentation shifted from the west and east of Guangdong to the Pearl River Delta. 2) The evolution of cultivated land fragmentation is significantly affected by nine factors, including total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, urbanization rate, GDP, altitude, slope, average annual precipitation, population core density, distance from residential areas and distance from roads. Among them, socio-economic factors such as total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, urbanization rate and GDP play a leading role in influencing the fragmentation of cultivated land landscape in Guangdong Province Output value is the most important factor. This shows that socio-economic factors are the main factors to curb the fragmentation of cultivated land in Guangdong Province, and become an important factor affecting the fragmentation degree of cultivated land in this region. 3) The evolution of cultivated land landscape fragmentation in Guangdong Province has four typical driving mechanisms: First, Yunan County is represented by the project of returning farmland to forest, and the fragmented cultivated land patches distributed in hills and other areas are reduced, which makes the distribution of cultivated land tend to be concentrated; Second, Gaozhou City is the representative of the improvement of farmland protection related policy intervention to alleviate the degree of farmland fragmentation; The third is Yangxi County as the representative, the adjustment of crop cultivation type and the change of land use type lead to the reduction of cultivated land area; Fourth, Huangpu District as the representative, the change of industrial structure and social and economic development led to insufficient attention to the protection of cultivated land.

     

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