湖南省水稻生产负外部性评估、时空演变及影响因素研究

Research on negative externalities evaluation, spatiotemporal evolution, and influencing factors of rice production in Hunan Province

  • 摘要: 评估水稻生产的负外部性有助于农业生态防控和生态文明战略推进。基于2000—2021年湖南省地级市面板数据,运用市场价值法、标准差椭圆、趋势面分析、地理探测器和OLS回归等方法,从温室气体排放等六个方面测算了水稻生产的负外部性价值,并分析了其时空演变特征,同时探讨了自然和社会经济因素对其的影响。结果表明:(1)2000—2021年湖南省水稻生产的年均负外部性价值为246.63亿元,负外部性价值构成以温室气体排放(45.95%)和化肥污染(21.04%)为主。(2)2000—2014年,水稻生产负外部性价值整体呈缓慢上升趋势,2014年达到峰值后,呈小幅波动下降趋势,反映了新时代农业生态防护的成效。(3)负外部性价值呈现显著的空间异质性,空间分布特点为中东部高、西部低,各区域负外部性价值密度不均,且整体空间分布随时间变化较为稳定,未显著迁移。(4)水稻生产的负外部性价值受自然和社会经济因素耦合影响,各因素的交互作用增强了其解释力度。负外部性价值与平均坡度、社会消费品零售总额呈显著负相关,与降水资源量、平均高程、地区生产总值、乡村人口、农村居民可支配收入及农业机械总动力呈显著正相关。从政府引领、市场引导、农户参与、科技支撑等方面为控制负外部性影响提出了具体建议。

     

    Abstract: The research on the indirect value of rice production mainly focuses on ecosystem service functions, while there is little research on externalities. Evaluating the negative externalities of rice production can help promote agricultural ecological prevention and control and ecological civilization strategies. This article is based on panel data from prefecture level cities in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2021. Using methods such as market value method, standard deviation ellipse, trend surface analysis, geographic detector, and OLS regression, the negative externality value of rice production is calculated from six aspects including greenhouse gas emissions, and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics are analyzed. At the same time, the impact of various natural and socio-economic factors on the negative externality value of rice production is explored. The results showed that: (1) The average annual negative externality value of rice production in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2021 was 24.663 billion yuan, and the negative externality value was mainly composed of greenhouse gas emissions (45.95%) and fertilizer pollution (21.04%). (2) From 2000 to 2014, the overall negative externality value of rice production in Hunan Province showed a slow upward trend. After reaching its peak in 2014, the growth trend was controlled and showed a slight fluctuation downward trend, reflecting the effectiveness of agricultural ecological protection in the new era. (3) The negative externality value exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with a higher concentration in the central and eastern regions of Hunan Province. The spatial distribution is characterized by higher values in the central and eastern regions and lower values in the western regions. The density of negative externality value is uneven across regions, and the overall spatial distribution is relatively stable over time without significant migration. (4) The negative externality value of rice production is influenced by the coupling of natural and socio-economic factors, and the interaction of these factors enhances its explanatory power. Negative externalities are significantly negatively correlated with average slope and total retail sales of consumer goods. Negative externalities are significantly positively correlated with precipitation resources, average elevation, regional GDP, rural population, disposable income of rural residents, and total power of agricultural machinery. The article innovatively analyzes the negative externalities of rice production in Hunan Province from a specific research object and dynamic spatial perspective, and puts forward specific suggestions for strengthening agricultural ecological protection and controlling the negative externalities of rice production from the aspects of government guidance, market guidance, farmer participation, and technological support.

     

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