数字农业对农业碳排放的影响及机制研究*

Research on the impact and mechanism of Digital agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions

  • 摘要: 目的 在“双碳目标”的背景下,探索研究数字农业对我国农业碳减排的影响机制。方法 本研究选取2011年至2020年的30个省份的面板数据,利用双向固定效应、中介效应以及门槛效应模型,探索了数字农业对农业碳排放的影响及其路径机制。结果 数字农业在降低农业碳排放方面具有显著的“减碳效应”,在农业碳排放水平处于95%水平时数字农业的“减碳效应”最为明显,且在多种稳健性检验下依然成立。在机制路径方面,数字农业通过农地流转实现对农业碳排放的“减碳效应”。门槛模型检验发现,当劳动力外流水平未超过单门槛值时,数字农业发展对农业碳排放的抑制作用更显著;当农业规模化经营水平超过单门槛值时,数字农业发展对农业碳排放的抑制作用更显著;当产业合理化水平未超过单门槛值时,数字农业发展对农业碳排放的抑制作用更显著。结论 在加快碳达峰的战略目标实现的进程中,促进农业碳减排应注重发挥数字农业的“数字红利”,因地制宜发展数字农业, 探索数字农业发展新模式。

     

    Abstract: Objective In the context of the "dual carbon goals", this paper explores the impact mechanism of digital agriculture on China's agricultural carbon emission reduction. Method In this study, panel data from 30 provinces from 2011 to 2020 were selected, and the impact of digital agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions and its path mechanism were explored by using two-way fixed effect, intermediary effect and threshold effect models. Result Digital agriculture has a significant "carbon reduction effect" in reducing agricultural carbon emissions, and the "carbon reduction effect" of digital agriculture is the most obvious when the agricultural carbon emission level is at the level of 95%, and it still holds under multiple robustness tests. In terms of mechanism pathways, digital agriculture realizes the "carbon reduction effect" on agricultural carbon emissions through the transfer of agricultural land. The threshold model test shows that when the level of labor outflow does not exceed the single threshold value, the inhibition effect of digital agriculture development on agricultural carbon emissions is more significant. When the level of large-scale agricultural operation exceeds the single threshold, the inhibition effect of digital agriculture development on agricultural carbon emissions is more significant. When the level of industrial rationalization does not exceed the single threshold, the inhibition effect of digital agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions is more significant. Conclusion In the process of accelerating the realization of the strategic goal of carbon peaking, the promotion of agricultural carbon emission reduction should focus on giving full play to the "digital dividend" of digital agriculture, developing digital agriculture according to local conditions, and exploring new development models of digital agriculture.

     

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