2013—2022年云南省农业碳排放的时空变化

Temporal and spatial dynamics of agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2022

  • 摘要: 农业活动是温室气体排放的重要来源之一, 对全球气候变化产生了显著影响。然而, 省域尺度的农业碳排放时空变化规律尚未完全明晰。本文系统研究了2013—2022年云南省农业碳排放的时空变化特征、驱动因素及其空间溢出效应, 旨在为制定低碳农业政策和实现农业可持续发展提供科学依据。本研究采用灰色关联度分析、地理探测器、空间自相关检验、标准差椭圆分析和空间计量模型等方法, 结合2013—2022年统计资料, 对云南省农业碳排放总量、强度及其时空分布进行了定量分析。研究结果表明: 1)云南省农业碳排放总量呈先增后减的趋势, 从2013年的1 241.34万t增加到2016年的1 310.95万t, 随后逐年降至2022年的1 050.20万t, 与2016年相比, 累计降幅达19.9%。农业碳排放强度则持续下降, 从2013年的0.406 t∙万元−1降至2022年的0.159 t∙万元−1, 降幅60.8%。2)云南省农业碳排放呈东部高、西北低的格局, 曲靖、昆明和红河是主要的高排放区域, 而怒江和迪庆等西北部地区农业碳排放量较低; 农业碳排放强度则表现为中部低、四周高的特征, 丽江和红河的农业碳排放强度较高。3)氮肥、农膜、复合肥和农药是农业碳排放的主要来源, 农业产值解释程度(q)=0.88、乡村人口(q=0.72)和GDP (q=0.69)是驱动农业碳排放空间异质性的关键因素。4) 云南省农业碳排放空间溢出效应显著, 农业产值和乡村人口每增加1%, 相邻地区的农业碳排放分别增加0.009%和0.013%; 而本地GDP增长对相邻地区农业碳排放具有抑制作用, 每增长1%可使相邻地区农业碳排放减少0.001%。本研究通过空间计量模型和地理探测器等方法, 揭示了云南省农业碳排放的时空变化规律, 并将空间溢出效应纳入省域尺度的碳排放研究框架。研究结果不仅进一步丰富了农业碳排放空间异质性及其成因的研究, 也为云南省制定低碳农业政策提供了科学依据, 为实现农业的绿色转型和可持续发展提供了参考。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural activities are an important source of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions that significantly impact global climate change. However, the spatiotemporal agricultural carbon emission patterns at the provincial level are not fully understood, especially in regions with diverse agricultural production modes, such as Yunnan Province, China. This study systematically investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics, driving factors, and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2022 to provide a scientific basis for formulating low-carbon agricultural policies and achieving sustainable agricultural development. This study used statistical data from 2013 to 2022, combined with grey relational analysis, geographic detector method, spatial autocorrelation test, standard deviation ellipse analysis, and spatial econometric modeling, to quantitatively analyze the total amount, intensity, and spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province. The research results indicate that 1) total carbon emissions from agriculture showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. They increased from 12.413 4 Mt in 2013 to 13.109 5 Mt in 2016, but then decreased year by year to 10.502 0 Mt in 2022, which was a cumulative decrease of 19.9% compared to that in 2016. The carbon emission intensity declined from 0.406 t∙(104 ¥)−1 in 2013 to 0.159 t∙(104 ¥)−1 in 2022, and the cumulative decrease was 60.8%. 2) In terms of spatial distribution, agricultural carbon emissions showed a pattern of high in the east and low in the northwest. Qujing, Kunming, and Honghe were the main high emission areas, whereas northwestern regions (e.g. Nujiang and Diqing) showed lower agricultural carbon emissions. The agricultural carbon emission intensity was characterized by low in the middle and high in the surrounding areas, and Lijiang and Honghe showed higher agricultural carbon emission intensity. 3) Nitrogen fertilizer, agricultural film, compound fertilizer, and pesticide were the main sources of agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural output value, rural population, and GDP were the key factors driving the spatial heterogeneity associated with carbon emissions. 4) The spatial spillover effect was significant. The agricultural carbon emissions from adjacent areas increased by 0.009% and 0.013% for every 1% increase in agricultural output value and rural population, respectively. The growth in local GDP had a suppressive effect on agricultural carbon emissions in adjacent areas, with every 1% increase in local GDP leading to a 0.001% reduction in agricultural carbon emissions in adjacent areas. This study used spatial econometric model and geographical detector to reveal the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns and cross-regional linkage mechanisms driving agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province. It also incorporated spatial spillover effects into the provincial-scale carbon emission research framework. The results provide a scientific basis that can be used by Yunnan Province to formulate differentiated low-carbon agricultural policies, especially for high-emission areas such as Qujing, Kunming, and Honghe. The precision fertilization should be promoted, there should be a reduction in the use of agricultural films, and clean energy technologies should be adopted. For low-emission areas such as Nujiang, the low emission mode should continue to be maintained to reduce dependence on fertilizers and pesticides.

     

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