棉花产业协同集聚对棉花绿色全要素生产率的影响

The impact of cotton industry synergistic agglomeration on cotton green total factor productivity

  • 摘要: 本文基于构建的棉花产业协同集聚“要素流动-产业互动-空间联动”理论分析框架, 以2003—2022年中国棉花产地为研究对象, 实证研究了棉花产业协同集聚对棉花绿色全要素生产率的影响及其作用机制。研究发现: 1)棉花产业协同集聚与棉花绿色全要素生产率呈现先促进后抑制的“倒U型”关系; 2)棉花产业协同集聚具有“自我强化”的累积循环效应, 其效应可以显著持续4年; 3)拐点位于样本的94.12%分位数, 说明现阶段中国绝大多数棉花产区处于促进阶段; 4)棉花产业协同集聚对棉花绿色全要素生产率的影响在自然资源和要素需求弹性方面具有明显的异质性; 5)棉花产业协同集聚通过竞争效应、知识溢出效应和规模效应3条机制作用于棉花绿色全要素生产率, 其中竞争效应和知识溢出效应能够缓解“倒U型”关系, 而规模效应强化了“倒U型”关系, 知识溢出效应和规模效应能够推动拐点右移, 扩大促进阶段的区间, 而过度竞争会推动拐点左移, 导致抑制阶段提前。最后, 提出了优化棉花产业布局、避免过度竞争、发展适度规模经营等建议, 以实现棉花产业高质量发展, 助力中国式农业现代化。

     

    Abstract: This study is based on the theoretical framework of “factor flow-industrial interaction-space linkage” of the cotton industry cooperative agglomeration. With China’s cotton origins as the research object, the study empirically investigaed the impact of the cotton industry synergistic agglomeration on cotton green total factor productivity and its functional mechanism from 2003 to 2022. The study found that: 1) Cotton industry synergistic agglomeration and cotton green total factor productivity exhibited an “inverted U-shaped” relationship that first promoted and then inhibited. 2) The synergistic agglomeration of the cotton industry had a “self-reinforcing” cumulative cyclical effect, which lasted for four years. 3) The inflection point was located at the 94.12% quantile of the samples, indicating that the vast majority of China’s cotton producing regions were currently in the promotion stage. 4) The impact of synergistic agglomeration in the cotton industry on green total factor productivity in cotton was significantly heterogeneous in terms of natural resources and factor demand elasticities. 5) Cotton industry synergistic agglomeration acted on cotton green total factor productivity through three mechanisms: competition, knowledge spillover and scale effects. The competition and knowledge spillover effects alleviated the “inverted U-shaped” relationship, whereas the scale effect strengthened the “inverted U-shaped” relationship. Knowledge spillover and scale effects pushed the inflection point to the right and widen the facilitation phase interval, whereas excessive competition pushed the inflection point to the left, leading to an earlier inhibition phase. Finally, suggestions were made, such as optimizing the layout of the cotton industry, avoiding excessive competition, developing moderate-scale operations to achieve high-quality development of the cotton industry, and modernizing Chinese-style agriculture.

     

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