内蒙古呼包鄂经济圈农业碳排放量及其影响因素

Accounting of agricultural carbon emission and analysis of influencing factors in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle of Inner Mongolia

  • 摘要: 农业碳排放核算作为识别农业活动主要碳排放源的关键步骤, 对于促进绿色低碳农业发展以及推动农业现代化进程具有不可或缺的作用, 是实现农业高质量发展的有力支撑。本文以具有区位优势的内蒙古呼包鄂经济圈为研究对象, 基于2011—2020年的面板数据, 对该区域农业种植业、养殖业、能源消耗3方面的碳排放量进行核算; 通过分析时间变化和空间差异, 揭示研究区农业碳排放的动态变化特征; 结合农业碳排放强度, 对比分析了呼和浩特市、包头市、鄂尔多斯市的绿色低碳农业发展水平; 并构建LMDI模型深入探讨了影响农业碳排放的多种因素。研究结果表明: 1)种植业主要碳排放源为农作物耕种过程中化肥农药的施用, 养殖业主要是牲畜肠道消化饲料发酵, 能源消耗以农用塑料薄膜、农用柴油、有效灌溉为主。2)研究区农业总碳排放量呈平稳且缓慢的增长态势, 其中种植业碳排放量占据首位, 占比超过40%; 能源消耗次之; 而养殖业碳排放量最少, 且呈现明显下降趋势。3)呼和浩特市和鄂尔多斯市的农业总碳排放量大致相等, 约为包头市的2倍; 呼和浩特市主要碳源为种植业和能源消耗; 鄂尔多斯市碳排放总量整体呈现“先上升后下降”的趋势, 主要碳源为种植业和养殖业; 而包头市碳排放总量维持在一个平缓且相对较低的水平。4)研究区农业碳排放强度从2011年的4 584 t∙(104¥)−1下降至2020年的2 752 t∙(104¥)−1, 显示出绿色低碳农业发展的积极态势, 特别是包头市和鄂尔多斯市绿色低碳农业发展水平明显优于呼和浩特市。5)农业生产效率和经济规模水平是农业碳排放量增加的重要因素, 其中农业生产效率最为显著, 而人力资源投入、农业碳排放强度和非城镇化水平则对研究区农业碳排放量表现为抑制效应, 其中人力资源投入为最主要的抑制因素。本研究结果可为“碳达峰碳中和”目标背景下内蒙古呼包鄂经济圈的农业碳减排提供科学路径。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural carbon emissions accounting, a crucial step in identifying the main sources of carbon emissions in agricultural activities, plays an indispensable role in promoting the development of green and low-carbon agriculture and advancing the process of agricultural modernization. This serves as a powerful support for achieving high-quality agricultural development. This study took the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle in Inner Mongolia, which has a unique regional advantage, as the research object. Based on panel data from 2011 to 2020, carbon emissions from three aspects of the region’s crop production, livestock farming, and energy consumption were accounted for. The dynamic change characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in the study area were revealed by analyzing the changing trends in the time series and differences in spatial distribution. Combined with agricultural carbon emission intensity, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos Cities of the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle in Inner Mongolia were comparatively analyzed, and an LMDI model was constructed to explore the various factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions. The research results showed that: 1) In the crop production, the primary sources of carbon emissions were the application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides during crop cultivation. In the livestock farming industry, it was mainly the CH4 gas produced by the fermentation of livestock feed during intestinal digestion. In terms of energy consumption, the greenhouse gas emissions primarily originated from the use of agricultural plastic films, agricultural diesel, and effective irrigation. 2) Total agricultural carbon emissions in the study area showed a stable yet gradual uptrend. Carbon emissions from the crop production ranked first, accounting for more than 40%, followed by energy consumption. The livestock farming contributed the least to total emissions and demonstrated a clear downward trend. 3) Total agricultural carbon emissions in Hohhot and Ordos were approximately equal and nearly twice those observed in Baotou. In Hohhot, the main carbon sources were the crop production and energy consumption. The total carbon emissions in Ordos showed a trend of “first rising and then falling and then stable” and the main carbon sources were the crop production and the livestock farming. The total carbon emissions from Baotou remained relatively stable and low. 4) The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the study area decreased from 4.584 t∙(104¥)−1 in 2011 to 2 752 t∙(104¥)−1 in 2020, indicating a positive trend in the development of green and low-carbon agriculture. In particular, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Baotou and Ordos were significantly higher than in Hohhot. 5) Agricultural production efficiency and economic scale were important factors promoting an increase in agricultural carbon emissions, with agricultural production efficiency being the most significant. Human resource input, agricultural carbon emission intensity, and non-urbanization level inhibited agricultural carbon emissions in the study area, among which human resource input was the most important inhibitory factor. The results of this study can provide a scientific research path for agricultural carbon emission reduction work in the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle in Inner Mongolia, with the goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality.

     

/

返回文章
返回