内蒙古呼包鄂经济圈农业碳排放量及其影响因素

Accounting of agricultural carbon emissions and analysis of influencing factors in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Economic Circle of Inner Mongolia

  • 摘要: 农业碳排放核算作为识别农业活动主要碳排放源的关键步骤, 对于促进绿色低碳农业发展以及推动农业现代化进程具有不可或缺的作用, 是实现农业高质量发展的有力支撑。本文以具有区位优势的内蒙古呼包鄂经济圈为研究对象, 基于2011—2020年的面板数据, 对该区域种植业、养殖业、能源消耗3方面的碳排放量进行核算; 通过分析时间变化和空间差异, 揭示研究区农业碳排放的动态变化特征; 结合农业碳排放强度, 分析呼和浩特、包头、鄂尔多斯的绿色低碳农业发展水平; 构建LMDI模型, 深入探讨影响农业碳排放的多种因素。研究结果表明: 1)种植业主要碳排放源为农作物种植与生长过程中氮肥的施用, 养殖业主要为牲畜肠道发酵, 能源消耗以农膜生产和有效灌溉为主。2)研究区农业总碳排放量呈缓慢递减态势, 养殖业碳排放量占据首位, 占比超过50%, 且降幅较大; 种植业碳排放量次之, 其变化较平缓。3)鄂尔多斯农业总碳排放量最多, 为包头的2倍以上, 其农业碳排放总量整体呈先上升后下降的趋势, 主要碳源为种植业和养殖业, 而包头农业碳排放总量维持在一个平稳且相对较低的水平; 呼和浩特主要碳源为种植业和养殖业。4)研究区农业碳排放强度从2011年的5.423 2 t∙(104 ¥)−1降至2020年的2.567 1 t∙(104 ¥)−1, 显示出绿色低碳农业发展的积极态势, 特别是包头绿色低碳农业发展水平明显优于呼和浩特和鄂尔多斯。5)农业生产效率和经济规模水平是农业碳排放量增加的重要因素, 其中农业生产效率最为显著, 而人力资源投入、农业碳排放强度和非城镇化水平则对研究区农业碳排放量表现为抑制效应, 其中农业碳排放强度为最主要的抑制因素。本研究结果可为“碳达峰碳中和”目标背景下内蒙古呼包鄂经济圈的农业碳减排提供科学路径。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural carbon emissions accounting, a crucial step in identifying the main sources of carbon emissions in agricultural activities, plays an indispensable role in promoting the development of green and low-carbon agriculture and advancing the process of agricultural modernization. This serves as a powerful support for achieving high-quality agricultural development. This study took the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Economic Circle in Inner Mongolia, which has a unique regional advantage, as the research object. Based on panel data from 2011 to 2020, carbon emissions from three aspects of the region’s crop production, livestock farming, and energy consumption were accounted for. The dynamic change characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in the study area were revealed by analyzing the spatial and temporal changes. Combined with agricultural carbon emission intensity, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos of the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Economic Circle in Inner Mongolia were comparatively analyzed, and a LMDI model was constructed to explore the various factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions. The research results showed that: 1) In the crop production, the primary sources of carbon emissions were the application of nitrogen fertilizer in the process of crop planting and growth. In the livestock farming, CH4 produced during enteric fertmentation was the major contributor to carbon emissions. In terms of energy consumption, the carbon emissions primarily originated from the production of agricultural plastic films, and effective irrigation. 2) Total agricultural carbon emissions in the study area showed a gradual down trend. Carbon emissions from the livestock farming ranked first, accounting for more than 50%, and the decline is relatively obvious; carbon emissions from crop production was second, showing a gentle trend. 3) Total agricultural carbon emissions in Ordos was the largest and more than double that observed in Baotou. In Hohhot, the main carbon sources were crop production and livestock farming. The total carbon emissions in Ordos showed a trend of first rising, and then falling, and the main carbon sources were crop production and livestock farming. Total carbon emissions from Baotou remained relatively stable and low. 4) The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the study area decreased from 5.423 2 t∙(104 ¥)−1 in 2011 to 2.567 1 t∙(104 ¥)−1 in 2020, indicating a positive trend in the development of green and low-carbon agriculture. In particular, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Baotou was higher than that in Hohhot and Ordos. 5) Agricultural production efficiency and economic scale were important factors promoting an increase in agricultural carbon emissions, with agricultural production efficiency being the most significant. Human resource input, agricultural carbon emission intensity, and non-urbanization level inhibited agricultural carbon emissions in the study area, among which agricultural carbon emission intensity was the most important inhibitory factor. The results of this study can provide a scientific pathway for agricultural carbon emission reduction in the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Economic Circle in Inner Mongolia, with the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

     

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