农业社会化服务对省域粮食绿色全要素生产率的空间效应研究
Research on the spatial effect of agricultural socialized service on grain green total factor productivity at the provincial level
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摘要: 发展农业社会化服务是实现粮食生产绿色转型的重要内容, 是新形势下不断夯实粮食安全根基的必然选择。本文基于2002—2022年中国30个省份(自治区、直辖市, 不包括中国西藏、香港、澳门和台湾省)的面板数据, 采用超效率Slack-Based Measure (SBM)模型、全局Malmquist-Luenberger (GML)指数和动态空间杜宾模型, 实证检验农业社会化服务发展水平对粮食绿色全要素生产率的空间影响及其区域异质性。研究结果表明: 1) 2003—2022年, 中国省域粮食绿色全要素生产率总体呈上升趋势和“东部高、中西部低”的空间格局; 2) 中国粮食绿色全要素生产率和农业社会化服务发展水平均具有明显的空间正相关性; 3) 短期内, 农业社会化服务发展水平的提升促进了本地区粮食绿色全要素生产率提升, 并呈现出正向空间溢出效应, 这一结论在一系列稳健性检验下依然成立; 4) 农业社会化服务发展水平的影响效应存在区域异质性特征, 短期内, 其对东部地区、粮食主产区和主销区的粮食绿色全要素生产率具有显著的正向空间溢出效应; 长期来看, 仅农业基础较为扎实的粮食主产区能够持续发挥农业社会化服务的促进作用, 并带动周边地区提升粮食绿色全要素生产率。为此, 中国应加强农业社会化服务与粮食绿色生产转型的协同治理, 深化区域农业合作联动, 因地制宜优化粮食绿色生产布局, 进而有效促进粮食生态可持续发展。Abstract: The development of agricultural socialized service is a crucial component in promoting the green transformation of grain production, and it represents an inevitable strategic choice to consolidate the foundation of grain security under the current circumstances. With increasing environmental constraints and the urgent need to improve production efficiency, agricultural socialized service has become an essential mechanism for modernizing agriculture and achieving sustainable development in the grain sector. In this paper, we used the super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model and the Global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index to measure the grain green total factor productivity of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2022, and constructed a dynamic spatial Durbin model to examine the spatial impacts of agricultural socialized service development level on the grain green total factor productivity and its regional heterogeneity. The study shows that: 1) From 2003 to 2022, China’s provincial grain green total factor productivity shows a continuous upward trend and a spatial pattern of “high in the east and low in the central and western parts of the country”; 2) China’s grain green total factor productivity and the development level of agricultural socialized service both have obvious positive spatial correlation; 3) In the short term, the improvement in the development level of agricultural socialized service not only enhances the grain green total factor productivity in the region, but also shows a significant positive spatial spillover effect. This result remains robust across a series of tests.4) The impact of agricultural socialized service development level is characterized by regional heterogeneity. In the short term, it has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the grain green total factor productivity in the eastern region, the Main grain-producing region and the Main grain-consuming region; in the long term, only the main grain-producing region with a more solid agricultural foundation can continue to play a role in promoting agricultural socialized service and drive the neighboring areas to improve the grain green total factor productivity. 5) The degree of government intervention, the structure of agricultural cultivation, the level of urbanization, and the level of industrialization all have a significant positive effect on the green total factor productivity of food in neighboring regions. Based on these findings, it is recommended that China strengthen the coordinated governance of agricultural socialized service and green grain production transformation. Furthermore, promoting inter-regional collaboration in agricultural services and optimizing the spatial allocation of green grain production according to local conditions will be essential to advancing the sustainable development of China’s grain economy.
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