基于有效积温的河北省双季青贮玉米气候适宜性区划

Climate suitability zoning of double-cropping silage maize in Hebei Province based on effective accumulated temperature

  • 摘要: 青贮玉米具有较高的饲用价值, 对于我国“粮改饲”种植结构调整和畜牧养殖业发展具有重要意义, 但是在双季种植过程中, 不同熟性组配青贮玉米的可种植区域尚不明确。为合理规划河北省不同熟性组配双季青贮玉米的可种植区域, 2024年采用大田试验的方法对10个品种玉米进行双季青贮种植, 根据每个品种生育期内活动积温将其划分为早熟、中熟、晚熟3个等级, 并对不同品种玉米进行熟性组配, 共6种组配方式, 分别为: 早熟-早熟、早熟-中熟、早熟-晚熟、中熟-中熟、中熟-晚熟、晚熟-晚熟。利用河北省123个县内气象站点45年(1976—2020年)的气象统计资料, 计算得到各县每年有效积温, 结合ArcGIS的空间分析功能, 使用反距离权重法, 分析河北省不同熟性组配双季青贮玉米的可种植区域, 为河北省地区发展双季青贮玉米种植模式提供参考。结果表明, 河北省双季青贮玉米可种植区域主要分布在平原地区以及西部山区, 且有效积温(每15年平均值)逐渐增加, 1976—2020年, 气候变暖的趋势使可种植双季青贮玉米的区域逐渐向北向东扩展, 6种熟性组配在河北省都有可种植的区域。综合来看, 持续的全球变暖可能会进一步增加双季青贮玉米的热量资源, 可能会扩大不同熟性组配的适宜种植面积, 进而提高河北省农业系统的牧草年生产能力。该研究通过熟性组配优化设计为河北省双季青贮玉米种植适应气候变化奠定了基础。

     

    Abstract: Silage maize (Zea mays L.) has become a crucial grain-forage dual-purpose crop in Chinese agriculture. As one of the most widely used forage crops, its cultivation potential is significantly affected by the effective accumulated temperature. Although a large number of research works have been carried out to improve the yield and nutritional quality of silage maize, the research on the planting system of double-crop silage maize in different regions is relatively limited. In order to rationally plan the planting climate regions of double-crop silage maize in Hebei Province, this study conducted a field experiment in 2024 at the Nanpi Ecological Agriculture Experimental Station (38.04°N, 116.40°E) in Cangzhou City, Hebei Province. This area is a typical semi-arid agricultural ecosystem in the North China Plain. The experimental materials included ten maize varieties suitable for both grain and forage use with growth periods that could meet the requirement of two crops a year: ‘Jinling 327’ ‘Jiyuan 888’ ‘Ganyu 331’ ‘Huayu 698’ ‘Liangyu 99’ ‘Weike 966’ ‘Boke 1066’ ‘Dongdan 1775’ ‘Zhengdan 958’ and ‘Beinong 368’. During the whole growing season, the phenological periods of each variety were recorded, including the emergence stage, jointing stage, silking stage, blister stage, milk stage, and early dough stage, and the effective accumulated temperature (the sum of the daily average temperatures above 10 ℃ during the growth period) of each variety in each growing season was calculated. According to the average effective accumulated temperature (Ai) of the two seasons, the tested varieties were divided into three different maturity groups: early-maturing (Ai<1 200 ℃∙d), medium-maturing (1 200≤Ai<1 250 ℃∙d), and late-maturing (Ai≥1 250 ℃∙d), thus obtaining six possible double-crop combinations: early-maturing-early-maturing, early-maturing - medium-maturing, early-maturing - late-maturing, medium-maturing - medium-maturing, medium-maturing - late-maturing, and late-maturing - late-maturing. In order to infer these experimental results at the spatio-temporal scale, this study integrated the extensive meteorological data sets of 123 county-level meteorological stations in Hebei Province over 45 years (1976−2020), implemented a strict data quality control protocol, and used the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation method to estimate the missing observations. This method ensured the complete spatial coverage while maintaining the integrity of the thermal regime analysis. The results showed that the overall interannual variation rate of the effective accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ in Hebei Province was 7.37 ℃∙d∙a−1, showing a gradually increasing trend; the areas with relatively small effective accumulated temperature (≤1 100 ℃∙d) were all located in Zhangjiakou City and Chengde City from 1976 to 2020, and the range gradually decreased but the trend was not obvious; the range of larger values (≥2 200 ℃∙d) gradually expanded and the trend was relatively obvious. By 2020, the trend of climate warming had caused the area where double-crop silage maize could be planted to expand northward, and all six combinations had areas where they could be planted in Hebei Province. This study shows that climate warming has greatly changed the planting potential of double-crop silage maize in Hebei Province. In conclusion, with the continuous global climate warming, the increase in the effective accumulated temperature in the future may further increase the heat resources for double-crop silage maize and may expand the feasible planting area of different maturity combinations. The methodological framework developed here, combining precise field experiments with powerful climate analysis, provides a model for evaluating the adaptation of planting systems facing similar climate-driven transitions in other temperate regions. Future research should incorporate more environmental variables and economic factors to develop comprehensive decision support tools for farmers and policymakers to address the challenges and opportunities of climate change.s

     

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