Abstract: Under China’s “Dual Carbon” policy framework (carbon peak and carbon neutrality), agricultural emission reduction has emerged as a crucial pathway for achieving sustainable development and environmental sustainability. This study systematically investigates the impact mechanism of digital agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions, aiming to provide comprehensive theoretical support and policy implications for the development of low-carbon agriculture. Utilizing a provincial-level panel dataset encompassing 30 Chinese provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities, not including Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang of China) from 2011 to 2020, this research employs an integrated analytical framework incorporating two-way fixed effects models, mediation effect, and threshold effect models to rigorously examine the complex relationship between digital agriculture development and agricultural carbon emissions. The empirical results robustly demonstrate that digital agriculture exhibits a significant and substantial “carbon reduction effect”, effectively mitigating agricultural carbon emissions. This conclusion remains statistically significant and economically meaningful after undergoing a series of robustness tests, including alternative model specifications, data winsorization, and sample exclusion. Further mechanism analysis reveals that land transfer serves as a critical mediating pathway through which digital agriculture achieves its carbon reduction benefits, facilitating large-scale agricultural operations and technological adoption. The threshold model test found that when labor outflow is between the single threshold and the double threshold, the inhibitory effect of digital agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions is more significant. When the scale of agricultural operation exceeds the single threshold value, the inhibitory effect of digital agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions is more significant. When industrial rationalization exceeds the single threshold value, the inhibitory effect of digital agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions is more significant. These findings carry important policy implications for China’s low-carbon agricultural transition. During the critical acceleration phase toward achieving China’s Dual Carbon Goals, policymakers should prioritize fully leveraging the “digital dividend” of agricultural digital transformation. Implementation strategies should focus on creating tailored, region-specific models for digital agriculture promotion that align with local resource availability and developmental stages. Concurrently, innovative approaches must be actively investigated to enhance synergies between digital technology adoption and emission reduction initiatives. This study advances sustainable agriculture research by offering empirical evidence and analytical frameworks to assess the carbon mitigation potential of digital agriculture in developing economies. The findings provide practical insights for coordinating agricultural digitization with environmental sustainability under China’s “Dual Carbon” policy framework.