System dynamics scenario analysis of circular economic development in Guangdong Province

Based on population, environment, natural resources and economic development analysis, a circular economy model was established for Guangdong Province using system dynamics method. System dynamics is characterized by a cause-feedback mechanism and interactions among economic variables. In the study, the economy, resource and environmental pollution simulation results in the three scenarios were compared. Under the scenario of enhanced comprehensive waste utilization ratio, decontamination ratio of industrial waste gas, renewable energy utilization ratio and water and energy saving ratio, contamination and natural resource deficiency will diminish while total green GDP steadily increase. However, under low decontamination rate of the three kinds of wastes (water, gas and solid), low renewable energy utilization rate and non-effective water conservation measure, total green GDP will increase slowly and reach its peak around 2014, and will then decline with excessive consumption of natural resources and intensification of environmental contamination. The results of this study therefore could provide vital guidelines for the implementation of regionally sustainable development under restricted natural resources and environmental contamination.