Configuration analysis of factors influencing carbon emissions from provincial agriculture in China under the TOE framework —Combining NCA and fsQCA methods*

Developing low carbon agriculture is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable agricultural development, and exploring the linkage effect of factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions is a necessary path for developing low carbon agriculture. Based on the “Technology-Organization-Environment” framework, this study constructs a theoretical framework of factors influencing carbon emissions from Chinese provincial agriculture, which is to clarify the complex causal relationships among the influencing factors of provincial agriculture carbon emissions in China. After calculating the total agricultural carbon emissions of Chinese provinces in 2017 by using input-output method, further calculating the agricultural carbon emission intensity of Chinese provinces , this study analyzes the necessity of single-factor with low carbon emissions of agriculture or non-low carbon emissions of agriculture by necessary condition analysis, while analyzing the adequacy of multi-factors with low carbon emissions of agriculture or non-low carbon emissions of agriculture by fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis, which is to explore the complex configuration relationship of various influencing factors with agricultural carbon emissions. The following conclusions are ultimately obtained: firstly, this study finds that agricultural mechanization, agricultural financial support, agricultural technician, environmental regulation, and rationalization of agricultural industrial structure are not necessary condition of low carbon emissions of agriculture or non-low carbon emissions of agriculture by combining necessary condition analysis with fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis. Secondly, through fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis, this study obtains four influencing pathways for generating low carbon emissions of agriculture, which are summarized as machinery leading type, machinery and structure collaborating type, and structure and environment collaborating type by using the method of summing-up core factors. The solution coverage of the four influencing pathways is 61%, which means that more than half of provinces with low carbon emissions of agriculture can be explained. Simultaneously, this study finds three influencing pathways for leading to non-low carbon emissions of agriculture, which are summarized as machinery and structure absenting type, as well as machinery and environment absenting type by using the method of summing-up core factors. The solution coverage of the three influencing pathways is 43%, which indicates that nearly half of provinces with non-low carbon emissions of agriculture can be explained. Finally, from a comprehensive perspective with the influencing pathways about low carbon emissions of agriculture and non-low carbon emissions of agriculture, this study detects that agricultural mechanization, rationalization of agricultural industrial structure, and environmental regulation are key factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions. The four influencing pathways for generating low carbon emissions of agriculture include at least one of the three influencing factors, and the three influencing pathways for leading to non-low carbon emissions of agriculture are lack of two out of the three influencing factors. So, Low-carbon agriculture can be better developed, only through the mutual promotion of technology, organization, and environment. This study provides new ideas for exploring carbon emissions, and expands the application areas of the “Technology-Organization-Environment” framework in Chinese context. At the same time, the research findings point out diversified driving pathways for developing low-carbon agriculture in Chinese provinces.