肖登攀, 陶福禄, 沈彦俊, 刘剑锋, 王仁德. 华北平原冬小麦对过去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2014, 22(4): 430-438. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2014.31000
引用本文: 肖登攀, 陶福禄, 沈彦俊, 刘剑锋, 王仁德. 华北平原冬小麦对过去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2014, 22(4): 430-438. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2014.31000
XIAO Dengpan, TAO Fulu, SHEN Yanjun, LIU Jianfeng, WANG Rende. Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2014, 22(4): 430-438. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2014.31000
Citation: XIAO Dengpan, TAO Fulu, SHEN Yanjun, LIU Jianfeng, WANG Rende. Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2014, 22(4): 430-438. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2014.31000

华北平原冬小麦对过去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究

Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades

  • 摘要: 以气候变暖为主要特征的全球变化已经对人类的生产和生活产生重要影响。作物物候及产量对气候变化的响应和适应是研究气候变化对农业生产影响的重要内容。本文选择位于华北平原的4个典型农业气象试验站(唐山、惠民、商丘和驻马店), 利用详细的物候和产量观测资料, 在站点尺度上研究了冬小麦物候及产量对过去30年(1980-2009)气候变化的响应及其敏感性。结果表明: 过去30年冬小麦出苗期推迟, 而抽穗期和成熟期呈提前趋势。物候期的提前或推迟导致冬小麦不同生长发育阶段历时发生变化, 出苗-抽穗阶段(营养生长阶段)呈缩短趋势, 而抽穗-成熟生长阶段(生殖生长阶段)呈延长趋势。相关性研究表明: 在4个研究站点, 温度和辐射是制约冬小麦产量的主要气候因子; 但不同生长阶段, 冬小麦产量对气象因子的响应不同。利用多元回归统计方法研究冬小麦产量对不同生长阶段气候因子(温度、辐射和降雨)的敏感性发现: 在出苗-抽穗生长阶段, 除驻马店站点外, 温度升高对冬小麦产量有正效应; 而在抽穗-成熟阶段, 温度升高会给产量带来负面影响。冬小麦产量与辐射呈正相关, 辐射降低给冬小麦产量产生负效应。

     

    Abstract: As the main indicator for global change, ongoing climate warming has had significant impact on human life, including agricultural production for human consumption. Crop phonology and yield response to climate change has been critical in the study of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. This study used data from four typical agro-meteorological experiment stations in the North China Plain (NCP) to study the sensitivity of the response of winter wheat phenology and yield to climate change in the last three decades. The data included detailed observation dates of winter wheat phenology and yield in the NCP study area for the period of 1980 2009. The experiment stations are located in Tangshan of Hebei Province, Huimin of Shandong Province, Shangqiu and Zhumadian of Henan Province. The results showed that while sowing date of winter wheat delayed, heading and maturity dates advanced in the last three decades. The advance or delay of winter wheat phenology induced corresponding changes in the durations of the different growth stages of the crop. The duration from emergence to heading, which was a sensitive vegetative growth stage (VGP), shortened in all the four investigated stations. By contrast, the duration from heading to maturity, which was a critical reproductive growth stage (RGP), prolonged in all the stations. Correlation analysis showed that temperature and radiation were the main climatic factors controlling winter wheat cultivation in the study area. However, winter wheat yield response to meteorological factors differed with different growth stages. With the exception of Zhumadian Station, the temperature increase positively influenced winter wheat yield for the growth stage period from emergence to heading. However, temperature rise negatively influenced winter wheat yield for the growth stage period from heading to maturity. Winter wheat yield was positively correlated with radiation, implying that the decline in radiation in the study area in the last three decades had a negative effect on winter wheat production. Our findings suggested that the sensitivity of the response of winter wheat growth and yield to climate change in the NCP was increasing. The response mechanisms of crop growth and productivity to climate change needed appropriate consideration in order to improve the prediction of the impacts of climate change and to develop requisite adaptation measures to enhance future crop productivity.

     

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