杨平, 张丽娟, 赵艳霞, 姜蓝齐, 乔赛男, 张晓慧. 黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱风险评估与区划[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2015, 23(1): 110-118. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.140667
引用本文: 杨平, 张丽娟, 赵艳霞, 姜蓝齐, 乔赛男, 张晓慧. 黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱风险评估与区划[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2015, 23(1): 110-118. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.140667
YANG Ping, ZHANG Lijuan, ZHAO Yanxia, JIANG Lanqi, QIAO Sainan, ZHANG Xiaohui. Risk assessment and zoning of drought for summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2015, 23(1): 110-118. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.140667
Citation: YANG Ping, ZHANG Lijuan, ZHAO Yanxia, JIANG Lanqi, QIAO Sainan, ZHANG Xiaohui. Risk assessment and zoning of drought for summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2015, 23(1): 110-118. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.140667

黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱风险评估与区划

Risk assessment and zoning of drought for summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region

  • 摘要: 黄淮海地区是我国最大的粮食产区和夏玉米的主产区, 同时也是干旱灾害的频发区, 因此加强黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱灾害风险评估与区划有着重要的现实和战略意义。利用黄淮海地区气象数据以及地形、土地利用类型等数据, 基于自然灾害风险评估原理, 运用信息扩散法、加权综合评价法和层次分析法, 结合GIS技术对黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱灾害进行风险性评估与区划。结果表明: 黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱危险性整体偏高, 干旱频率均在64.36%以上, 高危险性等级主要分布在河北省北部和安徽省北部; 敏感性偏高, 高敏感性等级占总面积的20.80%, 集中分布于山东省沿海等地; 易损性偏低, 高、中易损性地区占总面积的22.4%, 各省均有少量分布; 干旱综合风险偏高, 高、中综合风险地区占总面积的68.43%, 整个黄淮海地区除安徽省东南部外其他地区风险性均较高。

     

    Abstract: The Huang-Huai-Hai Region is one of China's major grain producing areas, especially summer maize. Thus drought risk assessment of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region is critical in developing countermeasures to ensure grain security. This article assessed and zoned drought risk for summer maize cultivated in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region using the principles of natural disaster risk assessment along with meteorological data, terrain data, land use data and other relevant data in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region. The study also used spatial analysis techniques such as weighted comprehensive analysis (WCA), analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) as well as information diffusion theory. There has been extensive research involving the use of the principles of natural disaster risk assessment in recent years. This study calculated comprehensive drought risk index from three angles - disaster hazard, sensitivity and vulnerability. The selection of hazard index is critical and indicators such as precipitation and standard precipitation index (SPI) hardly precisely calculate the probability distribution of a specific drought index. This defect could be compensated for by using information diffusion theory. Firstly, percent precipitation anomaly was used as basic hazard index in calculating probability distribution based on information diffusion theory. The probability distribution of percent precipitation anomaly was divided by drought grade. Secondly, a weighted comprehensive analysis was conducted to determine hazard degree. The final results were calculated by selecting corresponding indicators for sensitivity and vulnerability. In this way, drought disaster risk for summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region was zoned based on a comprehensive hazard, sensitivity and vulnerability risk index. The results showed significant spatial differences in hazard sensitivity, vulnerability and comprehensive risk index for summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region. Drought hazard was relatively high and drought frequency exceeded 64.36%. The highest hazard areas were mainly distributed in the northern parts of Hebei Province and Anhui Province. The drought disaster sensitivity of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region was higher, areas with high sensitivity grades accounted for 20.80% of the total area, which was mainly distributed in the coastal areas of Shandong Province. Overall, the region's drought disaster vulnerability of summer maize was low. The highest and higher vulnerability areas accounted for 22.4% of the total area, and distributed in every province. The comprehensive drought risk index for the whole study area was high with the highest and higher risk areas accounting for 68.43% of the total area. The whole of Huang-Huai-Hai region was in high risk hazard zone, except for southeastern Anhui Province.

     

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