邵霜霜, 师庆东, 刘曼, 唐存士. 新疆农业产值的空间化表达与分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2014, 22(11): 1379-1384. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.140611
引用本文: 邵霜霜, 师庆东, 刘曼, 唐存士. 新疆农业产值的空间化表达与分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2014, 22(11): 1379-1384. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.140611
SHAO Shuangshuang, SHI Qingdong, LIU Man, TANG Cunshi. Spatialization and analysis of agricultural output value in Xinjiang[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2014, 22(11): 1379-1384. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.140611
Citation: SHAO Shuangshuang, SHI Qingdong, LIU Man, TANG Cunshi. Spatialization and analysis of agricultural output value in Xinjiang[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2014, 22(11): 1379-1384. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.140611

新疆农业产值的空间化表达与分析

Spatialization and analysis of agricultural output value in Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 为使以行政单元为单位的农业产值合理分配到地理单元上, 以新疆各县农业用地面积及河流长度为自变量建立多元回归模型, 采用面积权重的方法进行农业产值的空间化, 实现新疆农业产值1 km 1 km格网模拟。对新疆2012年农业产值的分析表明: 1)农业产值与耕地、林地、草地面积及河流长度密切相关。2)农业产值的多元回归模拟效果比较满意, 预测值与实际值拟合度达到0.82。3)空间模拟表明, 新疆农业产值整体水平较低, 大部分地区不足5 000元·km-2; 农业产值空间分布整体上呈现带状分布和片状分布相结合的特征, 块状高值区主要分布在伊犁地区、塔城地区、天山北坡等, 南疆地区普遍较低; 带状农业产值高值区主要沿塔里木河上中游、孔雀河流域、叶尔羌河流域, 伊犁河谷等分布。同时离道路越近, 农业产值越高。4)河流与农业产值的空间分布关系说明水资源是干旱区农业发展的制约因素。5)影响模拟精度的因素有自然地理条件、人文因素、地域差异以及土地利用类型内部生产力差异等。与以往研究相比, 本研究结合了干旱区的实际情况, 重点突出了水资源对干旱区农业的贡献, 这对今后研究具有一定的参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Spatialization of agricultural output value is a form of spatial statistics critical for analyzing agricultural output value. As a key agricultural province in China, there is the necessity to analyze the factors affecting the spatial distribution characteristics and output value of agriculture in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. This is critical for adjusting agricultural structure towards high productivity. To analyze agricultural output value on geo-administrative distribution, this paper established a multi-variate regression model with county-based areas of land use types and river lengths as independent variables in combination with area weighted method to spatialize agricultural output value in Xinjiang at 1.0 km spatial resolution. The results of analysis of agricultural output value of Xinjiang in 2012 showed that (1) agricultural output value was closely related to areas of total cultivated land, forest land, grassland and length of local rivers. (2) The suitability of multi-variate regression simulation of agricultural output value was satisfactory with the linearity between the predicted and actual values up to 0.82. (3) The results of the spatial simulation suggested that the overall level of agricultural output value was low in Xinjiang, which was less than 5 000 Yuan per km2. High value areas were concentrated in the Ili Region, Tuscaloosa Area, the north slope of Tianshan Mountain, and the upper and middle reaches of Tarim River. The areas with low values were mainly in the south of Taklimakan Desert. The whole distribution of agricultural output value was in zonal or sheet-like pattern. Most of the high value areas were belonged to the sheet-like pattern. The feature of zonal distribution was closely associated with local rivers and roads, but more especially with local river. Zonal distribution areas were mainly along the Tarim River Basin, Kongquehe River, Yeerqiang River Valley and Ili River Valley. The paper further analyzed the relationship between the main roads and agricultural output value. It was noted that the nearer to the roads, the higher were the agricultural output values. (4) The relationship between rivers and agricultural output values illustrated that water resources were the restricting factors of perfect agricultural development in arid areas. (5) The factors affecting the simulation accuracy included the inherent objective conditions of Xinjiang, human factors, regional differences and internal differences in production capacity of land use. Compared with previous studies, this paper considered on-the-ground conditions in arid areas and highlighted the importance of water resources in agricultural development and productivity. This had a real practical value for structural adjustment and optimization of agricultural industry in Xinjiang.

     

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