Nutrient flow characteristics analysis of typical county in crop-livestock systems in black soil region in Northeast China
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摘要:
在保障粮食安全的前提下, 东北黑土区作物和畜牧生产的耦合促进了农业绿色发展。本研究选择位于东北黑土区的吉林省农安县为研究区域, 以农牧系统为研究边界, 通过实地调研、统计数据和文献, 结合食物链养分流动模型(NUFER: NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use)定量分析1990—2020年农牧系统氮磷养分流动、利用效率和环境损失, 探究气候和社会经济因素对氮磷排放的驱动作用, 并设置平衡施肥(减少化肥施用)和有机肥替代(提升有机物料替代)两种情景评估该县减排潜力。结果表明, 相对于1990年, 2020年农安县农牧体系氮磷输入量分别下降45%和23%, 其中化肥施用是最大的输入项。作物和农牧系统养分利用率波动增加, 而畜禽系统养分利用率下降并逐渐趋于稳定。农牧体系氮磷损失量较1990年分别减少41%和增加29%。农田氨挥发、径流侵蚀和畜禽粪便直排为主要排放途径。通过平衡施肥和有机替代, 土壤氮磷积累处于较低水平, 至2030年农安县化学氮肥有80%的减施潜力, 化学磷肥有85%的减施潜力, 且氮磷养分环境排放均减少67%, 作物和农牧系统养分利用率均增长50%以上。综上, 农安县农牧体系未来可通过增加秸秆和粪便还田量提升化肥减施潜力。东北黑土区应继续深化化肥零增长政策, 推行有机废弃物资源化利用, 实现农牧系统协同优化发展。
Abstract:The integration of crop and livestock production promotes agricultural green development and guarantee food security in black soil region in Northeast China. In this study, Nong’an County, Jilin Province, which is located in black soil region in Northeast China, was selected as the study boundary. Quantitative studies for nitrogen and phosphorus flows, utilization efficiency as well as environmental losses in crop-livestock systems from 1990 to 2020 were conducted through field research, statistical data and literature, combined with the NUFER model (NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use). The present study explored the impacts of climate and socio-economic factors on nitrogen and phosphorus emissions. Furthermore, two sets of scenarios of balanced fertilization (reduction of fertilizer application) and organic substitution (increase of organic material substitution) were set up to assess the county’s emission reduction potential. The results showed that, compared to 1990, nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to crop-livestock systems for Nong’an County in 2020 decreased by 45% and 23%, respectively, with chemical fertilizer application as the largest input. The nutrient utilization efficiency of crop system and crop-livestock systems increased fluctuatingly, while nutrient utilization efficiency of livestock system decreased and tended to remain stable. The nitrogen and phosphorus losses of crop-livestock systems decreased by 41% and increased by 29% compared to 1990, respectively. Ammonia volatilization from farmland, runoff and erosion, and livestock manure discharge were the major contributors to nutirent losses. Through balanced fertilization and organic substitution, it is predicted that by 2030, Nong’an County will have the potential to reduce the application of chemical nitrogen fertilizer by 80% and chemical phosphorus fertilizer by 85%, with low levels of soil nitrogen and phosphorus accumulation, and the environmental emissions will be reduced by 67%, the nutrient utilization efficiency of crop system and crop-livestock systems will increase by more than 50%. In conclusion, crop-livestock system of Nong’an County can enhance the potential for fertilizer reduction in the future by increasing the amount of straw and manure returned to the field. The black soil region in Northeast China should continue to deepen the policy of zero growth of chemical fertilizer, and promote the utilization of organic waste to guarantee a synergistically optimized crop-livestock systems.
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图 5 1990—2020年农安县农牧系统氮(A)和磷(B)利用效率
NUEc: 作物氮利用率; NUEa: 畜禽氮利用率; NUEc+a: 农牧系统氮利用率; PUEc: 作物磷利用率; PUEa: 畜禽磷利用率; PUEc+a: 农牧系统磷利用率。实线表示线性回归, 阴影区域表示95%置信区间(n=31)。NUEc: nitrogen use efficiency of crop; NUEa: nitrogen use efficiency of animal; NUEc+a: nitrogen use efficiency of crop-livestock system; PUEc: phosphorus use efficiency of crop; PUEa: phosphorus use efficiency of animal; PUEc+a: phosphorus use efficiency of crop-livestock system. The solid line denotes linear regression, and the shaded area denotes 95% confidence intervals (n=31).
Figure 5. Use efficiencies of nitrogen (A) and phosphorus (B) of crop-livestock systems from 1990 to 2020 in Nong’an County
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图 1 研究区吉林省农安县地理位置
Figure 1. Geographical location of the study area of Nong’an County, Jilin Province
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图 2 1990—2020年农安县种植业(a)和畜牧业(b)结构变化
LU表示标准牛当量(折合500 kg奶牛), 不同动物LU折算系数分别为: 奶牛 1, 肉牛 0.8, 猪 0.3, 羊 0.1, 蛋鸡 0.014[21]。LU is livestock unit, which indicates the standard cattle equivalent (one cattle equivalent, which equals 500 kg live weight), and the conversion ratios for dairy cattle, beef cattle, pig, sheep and layer are 1, 0.8, 0.3, 0.1 and 0.014, respectively[21].
Figure 2. Changes of crop (a) and livestock (b) production structures from 1990 to 2020 in Nong’an County
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图 3 农安县农牧生产研究边界和养分流动图
a表示化肥投入, b表示饲料进口, c表示农作物收获, d表示农作物秸秆, e表示食品加工。a indicates fertilizer input; b indicates feed imported; c indicates crop harvested; d indicates crop straw; e indicates food processing.
Figure 3. Research boundary and nutrient flow of crop-livestock systems in Nong’an County
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4 1990年和2020年农安县农牧体系氮(N)和磷(P)养分流动特征及年际差异
4. Changes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows of crop-livestock systems of 1990 and 2020 in Nong’an County
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图 6 1990—2020年农安县农牧系统氮(A)和磷(B)环境损失
NH3-c: 农田氨挥发; N2O-c: 农田氧化亚氮损失; R&E-c: 农田径流和侵蚀过程中的养分损失(氮或磷); L-c: 农田淋溶过程中的养分损失(氮或磷); DeN-c: 农田反硝化过程中的氮素损失; NH3-a: 畜禽养殖业氨挥发; Disch/stack-a: 畜禽养殖业水体直排或堆置过程中的养分损失(氮或磷); PLc: 每生产1 kg作物产品的养分(氮或磷)损失; PLa: 每生产1 kg动物产品的养分(氮或磷)损失; PLc+a: 每生产1 kg农牧产品(作物产品+畜禽产品)的养分(氮或磷)损失; 实线表示线性回归, 阴影区域表示95%置信区间(n=31)。NH3-c: NH3 emissions from farmland; N2O-c: N2O losses from farmland; R&E-c: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses via runoff and erosion from farmland; L-c: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses via leaching from farmland; DeN-c: nitrogen losses via denitrification from farmland; NH3-a: NH3 emissions from livestock production; Disch/stack-a: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses via manure discharge or stacking from livestock production; PLc: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses per unit crop product production; PLa: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses per unit livestock product production; PLc+a: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses per unit crop and livestock product production. The solid line denotes linear regression, and the shaded region denotes 95% confidence intervals (n=31).
Figure 6. Environmental losses of nitrogen (A) and phosphorus (B) of crop-livestock systems from 1990 to 2020 in Nong’an County
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图 7 农安县农牧体系氮磷排放强度与气候和社会经济因素的关系
PLc: 每生产1 kg作物产品的养分(氮或磷)损失; PLa: 每生产1 kg动物产品的养分(氮或磷)损失; PLc+a: 每生产1 kg农牧产品(作物产品+畜禽产品)的养分(氮或磷)损失; 实线表示线性回归, 阴影区域表示95%置信区间(n=31)。PLc: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses per unit crop product production; PLa: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses per unit livestock product production; PLc+a: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses per unit crop and livestock product production. The solid line denotes linear regression and the shaded region denotes 95% confidence intervals (n=31).
Figure 7. Nitrogen and phosphorus losses per unit product production from crop-livestock systems in relation to climatic and socioeconomic factors in Nong’an County
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图 8 2020年和2030年不同情景下农安县农牧体系养分平衡、环境损失及利用效率
2020年和2030年为基准年份; S1-N60、S2-N70、S3-N80为2020年情景中化肥氮减施60%、70%、80%; S4-N70、S5-N80、S6-N90为2030年情景中化肥氮减施70%、80%、90%; S1-P75、S2-P80、S3-P85为2020年情景中化肥磷减施75%、80%、85%; S4-P80、S5-P85、S6-P90为2030年情景中化肥磷减施80%、85%、90%。NH3-c: 农田氨挥发; N2O-c: 农田氧化亚氮损失; R&E-c: 农田径流和侵蚀过程中的养分损失(氮或磷); L-c: 农田淋溶过程中的养分损失(氮或磷); DeN-c: 农田反硝化过程中的氮素损失; NH3-a: 畜禽养殖业氨挥发; Disch/stack-a: 畜禽养殖业水体直排或堆置过程中的养分损失(氮或磷)。2020 and 2030 are base years; S1-N60, S2-N70 and S3-N80 are scenarios of 60%, 70% and 80% reduction in the application of chemical nitrogen fertilizer in 2020, respectively; S4-N70, S5-N80 and S6-N90 are scenarios of 70%, 80% and 90% reduction in the application of chemical nitrogen fertilizer in 2030, respectively; S1-P75, S2-P80 and S3-P85 are scenarios of 75%, 80% and 85% reduction in the application of chemical phosphorus fertilizer in 2020, respectively; S4-P80, S5-P85 and S6-P90 are scenarios of 80%, 85% and 90% reduction in the application of chemical phosphorus fertilizer in 2030, respectively. NH3-c: NH3 emissions from farmland; N2O-c: N2O losses from farmland; R&E-c: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses via runoff and erosion from farmland; L-c: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses via leaching from farmland; DeN-c: nitrogen losses via denitrification from farmland; NH3-a: NH3 emissions from livestock production; Disch/stack-a: nutrient (nitrogen or phosphorus) losses via manure discharge or stacking from livestock production.
Figure 8. Nutrient balance, losses to the environment and use efficiency of crop-livestock systems in Nong’an County under different scenarios in 2020 and 2030
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图 9 1990—2020年农安县单位播种面积农业源温室气体排放量变化
Figure 9. Changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural production system per unit sown area from 1990 to 2020 in Nong’an County
表 1 不同农作物种植户调研数据
Table 1 Field research data of different crop farms
项目
Item粮食作物种植户
Staple crop farms经济作物种植户
Cash crop farms样本数 Sample size 187 122 耕地面积 Cultivation area (hm2) 377 319 31 461 播种面积 Sown area (hm2) 373 329 31 128 单位面积产量 Yield per unit area (kg·hm−2) 8458 39 794 籽粒利用方式
Grain utilization mode (%)饲喂 Feed 68 22 废弃 Waste 8 8 食品 Food 18 64 其他 Others 6 6 秸秆利用方式
Straw utilization mode (%)饲喂 Feed 38 42 还田 Return to field 44 36 焚烧 Burn 0 0 其他 Others 18 22 施肥量
Fertilization amount (kg·hm−2)基肥 Base fertilizer 35~40 33~50 追肥 Top application 225~300 75~270 施肥类型
Fertilizer type基肥
Base fertilizer复合肥
Compound fertilizer有机肥+尿素
Organic fertilizer + urea追肥
Top application复合肥+尿素
Compound fertilizer + urea复合肥
Compound fertilizer施用方式
Application method基肥
Base fertilizer深施
Deep application表施
Broadcast追肥
Top application表施+灌水
Broadcast + irrigation深施
Deep application
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表 2 不同畜禽养殖户调研数据
Table 2 Field research data of different livestock farms
项目
Item生猪养殖户
Pig farm肉牛养殖户
Beef cattle farm奶牛养殖户
Dairy cattle farm羊养殖户
Sheep farm蛋鸡养殖户
Layer farm样本数 Sample size 54 10 1 14 14 养殖规模 Size (heads) ≥500 ≥100 ≥100 ≥500 ≥10 000 饲料摄入量（鲜重）
Feed intake (kg∙head−1∙a−1)254 3454 7793 756 30 清粪方式
Cleaning method干清粪
Scraping system干清粪
Scraping system干清粪
Scraping system干清粪
Scraping system干清粪
Scraping system粪尿处理方式
Manure treatment厌氧堆肥+处理中心、厌氧堆肥+有机肥厂、沼气池+厌氧池
Anaerobic composting & treatment center; anaerobic composting + organic fertilizer manufacturing plant; biogas digester + anaerobic tank厌氧堆肥+处理中心
Anaerobic composting + treatment center厌氧堆肥+处理中心
Anaerobic composting + treatment center厌氧堆肥+处理中心
Anaerobic composting + treatment center厌氧堆肥+处理中心
Anaerobic composting + treatment center粪尿还田后氨挥发系数[22]
NH3 emission coefficient after manure applied to field (%)[22]25 25 25 25 25 粪尿储藏阶段氨挥发系数[22]
NH3 emission coefficient during storage (%)[22]29 19 19 24 12 粪尿年产生量
Manure production
(kg∙head−1∙a−1)氮 Nitrogen 4.9 30.0 70.0 7.1 0.55 磷 Phosphorus 1.7 4.8 12.9 1.0 0.25 粪尿利用情况
Manure utilization
(%)还田
Applied to field49 58 58 49 52 直排 Discharge 31 28 28 36 41
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表 3 农安县农牧系统养分环境排放模型与气候和社会经济因素的关系
Table 3 Relationships between nutrient environmental emissions from crop-livestock systems with climatic and socio-economic factors inNong’an County
参数
Parameter项目
Itemln(单位农产品总氮排放强度)
ln(nitrogen losses per unit agricultural product production)作物产品
Crop products畜禽产品
Livestock products农牧产品
Crop and livestock products模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2r ln(人均GDP) ln(GDP per capita) −0.27*** −0.06*** −0.28*** ln(城市化率) ln(urbanization rate) −1.32*** −0.24* −1.59*** 年均温度 Annual average temperature −0.07 −0.13 <0.01 −0.01 −0.05 −0.12* 累积降雨量 Accumulated rainfall >−0.01*** >−0.01*** >−0.01* >−0.01** >−0.01** >−0.01** n 31 31 31 31 31 31 调整后的R2
Adj. R-squared0.85 0.55 0.66 0.30 0.86 0.61 参数
Parameter项目
Itemln(单位农产品总磷排放强度)
ln(phosphorus losses per unit agricultural product production)作物产品
Crop products畜禽产品
Livestock products农牧产品
Crop and livestock products模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2r ln(人均GDP) ln(GDP per capita) −0.17*** −0.15*** −0.05 ln(城市化率) ln(urbanization rate) −0.82** −0.73*** 0.38 年均温度 Annual average temperature −0.02 −0.06 −0.01 −0.04 −0.02 −0.03 累积降雨量 Accumulated rainfall >−0.01*** >−0.01*** <0.01* >−0.01* >−0.01** >−0.01*** n 31 31 31 31 31 31 调整后的R2
Adj. R-squared0.79 0.56 0.92 0.46 0.28 0.29 *: P<0.05; **: P<0.01; ***: P<0.001. 模型1不考虑城市化率, 模型2不考虑人均GDP。In Model 1, urbanization rate is removed; in Model 2, GDP per capita is removed.
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