熊伟, 居辉, 许吟隆, 林而达. 气候变化下我国小麦产量变化区域模拟研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2006, 14(2): 164-167.
引用本文: 熊伟, 居辉, 许吟隆, 林而达. 气候变化下我国小麦产量变化区域模拟研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2006, 14(2): 164-167.
XIONG Wei, JU Hui, XU Yin-Long, LIN Er-Da. Regional simulation of wheat yield in China under the climatic change conditions[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2006, 14(2): 164-167.
Citation: XIONG Wei, JU Hui, XU Yin-Long, LIN Er-Da. Regional simulation of wheat yield in China under the climatic change conditions[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2006, 14(2): 164-167.

气候变化下我国小麦产量变化区域模拟研究

Regional simulation of wheat yield in China under the climatic change conditions

  • 摘要: 利用最新温室气体和SO2排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式和区域作物模型模拟未来2080s(2071~2100)我国小麦产量变化结果表明,2种温室气体排放方案2080s我国雨养小麦均表现显著减产趋势,灌溉可缓解小麦减产趋势,但不能阻止产量下降;若考虑CO2的直接肥效作用,雨养和灌溉小麦均表现明显增产趋势。

     

    Abstract: n this research, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, combined with the RCM (Regional Climate Model) model and CERES-Wheat model to investigate the change of wheat yield in 2080s. The results show that under the two emission scenarios, in 2080s, the yield of rainfed wheat decreases dramatically; irrigation can offset the decrease, but can not stop it; the yield increases for both irrigated wheat and rainfed wheat if the direct effect of CO2 is considered in the simulation.

     

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